As the Democratic National Convention opens today in Chicago, there are four problems—live or virtual—which will be addressed in some form at or by the Convention. These issues could very well determine the likelihood that Vice President Kamala Harris succeeds in being elected president in November.
They are:
1. Are the Democrats are prepared to unite behind Harris—regardless of internal policy differences--or will they prefer to score points and lose the election?
2. Will President Joe Biden be able to sail off into the sunset in January with the legacy of having successfully handed the Resolute Desk to his Vice President and having brought about a ceasefire and hostage release to end the Gaza War?
3. Will Vice-President Harris step forward to address the public and the media so that her skeptics and independents will feel she is more than a political cheer leader?
4. Will former President Donald Trump totally implode as he persists in addressing totally marginal issues while avoiding addressing the nation’s problems? Is he prepared to launch a national campaign or is destined to send the GOP into the political waste bin?
President Biden
Joe Biden’s convention speech will be his political swan song. While his Administration still has five months in office this is probably the final time that he will receive national attention. It will be the unofficial public transferal of the office of party leader, but it will also set forth his agenda for his final months. In addition to campaigning for Harris and other Democrats, Biden will have legislative battles to wage with an obstreperous House both before and after November 5th. Most important for his legacy the President undoubtedly will reiterate his commitment to bring home the Israeli hostages; enable a ceasefire in Gaza; avoid a major regional conflict in the Middle East; and make progress in building a viable future for all the parties in the region.
Vice President Harris
This Thursday Vice President Harris officially will become the Democratic nominee for President. To date she has moved ahead through good fortune and speaking positively about the future. She now must address substance, not necessarily in her acceptance speech but as she rolls out her campaign. This will include engaging in one or more press conferences, at least one of which must be before her debate with Trump.
The most important issue for Harris is that she demonstrates a command of details while also contextualizing her position within the Biden Administration’s policies of which she was an integral part. She needs to establish her own credibility without contradicting her actions over the past three and a half years. (If elected, she will have plenty of time to innovate, which is why her economic speech last week got mixed reviews.)
The Democratic Party
Democrats have a long history of shooting themselves in the foot during political campaigns especially during platform fights. Numerous conventions were torn asunder over debates concerning U.S. conduct of the War in Viet-Nam. Platform fights have been waged addressing civil rights as far back as 1948. Then Minneapolis Mayor Hubert Humphrey delivered a passionate appeal to the Party to move ahead and endorse a shift in the Party’s civil rights platform, attacking the states-rights wing of the party. This year’s convention could become polarized—if the leaders are not careful--over the Biden Administration’s handling of the War in Gaza, U.S.-Israel relations, and the plight of the Palestinian people. (Some of the more progressive leaders in the party, including Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, understand this fact. They are willing to lower their rhetoric to keep the party united behind President Biden. They are counselling against major pro-Palestinian protests which endger pro-Israel protests. They will encourage the convention to clearly acknowledge the continued suffering of innocent Palestinian civilians while also demanding the return of Israeli hostages.)
Donald Trump
There was a tradition that during one party’s convention the opposition party left the stage to the opposition. As with so much in politics in the 21st Century, especially since 2016, there is no normal anymore. It is likely, therefore, that Donald Trump will be silent but will respond to whatever he desires as events unfold in Chicago.
The former President at the moment appears fixated crowd sizes; money and donors; and Jews, anti-Semitism, as well as the war between Israel and Hamas. He will undoubtedly bash how these issues are framed at the Democratic Convention. As he will with other speakers and issues, Trump should be expected to tell his base how much stronger, better, and effective he was and will be in the future. It is likely that Trump will try every media trick to remove the spotlight from the D’s. While some of these efforts may distract the public, given how ineffective his campaign has been to date, there is no reason to assume this strategy will work.
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