· Mahmoud Abbas called off the election scheduled for May declaring they could be held until Arab Jerusalemites would be permitted to vote. He declared publicly that it was too dangerous now. The likely reason the election was postponed was because Abbas feared—rightly so—that Hamas would soundly defeat the traditional Palestinian leadership on the West Bank.
· In the current situation, Hamas represents the most dangerous active terrorist organization in the region and has (or had) a huge supply of rockets far exceeding what it possessed in 2014. Supplied by Iran and/or locally manufactured, this weapons cache and launching equipment was the largest and strongest Hamas has ever possessed. Some suggest that it was as large as Hezbollah forces in Lebanon who have yet to be heard from—so far.
· If Hamas had won an election in the Palestinian West Bank territories, there is no doubt that Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, as well as other major central Israeli population centers would have been within the range of their rockets. Defeating and defanging Hamas is important for Israel’s security, but it must be part of an overall strategy.
· Hamas initiated this round of reciprocal bombing and missile attacks allegedly in response to the Israeli Government’s mishandling of the Muslim demonstrations during Ramadan and the violent confrontation on the Temple Mount. It also parlayed the support that had arisen opposing the eviction of Arabs from Sheik Jarrah.
· After the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, no Israeli Government demonstrated a serious strategy as to how to avoid the episodic events which are occurring once again in the region. As seen during the hoopla over the Abraham Accords, the major powers in the Arab world are not prepared to raise the future of the Palestinian people as a decisive priority. Radical, pro-Iranian, anti-Sunni forces have sensed this vacuum and have repeatedly exploited the absence of Arab support for Hamas or even the Palestinian movement. Hamas and the jihadist terrorists can rule Gaza with impunity.
· Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu failed to form a new government and has been determined that no one else should succeed in doing so. Bibi knows that only by remaining in office will keep him out of a possible jail sentence.
· Netanyahu did not want a major flare-up with Hamas at this time, but he knew that during a war, all of Israel coalesces around a strong, battle-tested leader. Netanyahu is banking on this fact that either in a last-minute Knesset selection, or following Israel’s fifth election in four years, he will come out clearly on top.
· Israel totally underestimated the extent to which Americans—even American Jews—are not interested in watching another Israeli-Palestinian flareup. The progressive wing of the Democratic Party has totally distorted the events in Sheik Jarrah and converted it into a classic 19th or 20th Century imperialist land grab. Progressives Dems also did not distinguish between the land controversy outside of Jerusalem with the gross and wildly dangerous Hamas attacks targeting Israeli civilians. What this group of the Democratic Party did accomplish was to diminish public support for Israel in the U.S., even among non-left-wing Democrats.
· The response of American Jews gave credence to Netanyahu and the Israeli right-wing political leaders that the wedge Bibi has championed among American Jews is correct. It also served to corroborate the position presented by Israel’s recent Ambassador in Washington—and strong friend of Netanyahu—Ron Dermer. Speaking two weeks ago, Dermer declared that Israel’s best friend in the U.S. is the Evangelical community—which represent almost 25% of Americans—not Jews, who represent less than 3% of the population. The Christian Evangelical community’s support remains steadfast and uncritical of Israel, suggested Dermer, unlike that of American Jews.
· There was nary an outcry within the Jewish community as Netanyahu manipulated the creation of a separate political group, Religious Zionism, which was composed of extreme right-wing settler leaders, homophobes, racists, and former Kahanists. This bloc of five new Knesset members constitutes one of the most dangerous political forces in Israeli political history; yet, no one protested Netanyahu’s courting them to join his Government. These extremist probably were the most important reason that the dramatic revolution in Israeli politics—bringing in an Arab party into a Government—did not occur.
Now, Israel may have blown its chance to be received with open arms by one its most long-standing political friends in Washington. President Biden has been remarkably generous with Netanyahu but his personal as well his party’s patience is rapidly drawing to a close. The Trump era is over and Bibi refuses to admit it. As a consequence of this replay of a war with Hamas, Israel will face more difficult times ahead in its relationship with Washington, unless there is a dramatic change in Israeli attitudes towards its neighbors, its family, and its friends.
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