Americans awoke on Friday morning grateful that the final debate of the 2020 campaign came off as relatively normal. After the gruesome ugliness that President Trump portrayed three weeks ago in the previous debate, last night was rather substantive and civilized. Without considering their specific differences, the evening gave the public a chance to observe both the President and former Vice-President Biden actually considering issues.
The take-aways, beyond the partisan differences, however, were not remarkable or impactful. President Trump acted calm and contained, but he also is unlikely to have scored many points with the small number of voters who were remain undecided. The post-debate polls will address this more clearly, but the President may have picked up a few voters who had moved over to Biden, but probably did not move the needle significantly.
Joe Biden made no serious mistakes and uttered no bloopers. Biden probably did not hurt himself last night and kept his followers secure. The Biden camp, not knowing how Donald Trump would conduct himself following the President’s performance in the first debate, prepared the former Vice-President to be calm and prepared for every eventuality. For Biden, he passed his final remaining campaign hurdle successfully.
From here to Election Day, Biden controls his own stage. Trump needs to disrupt the conversation but from a distance and Biden can consider the nature of his reply. Trump’s staff was no doubt pleased the President restrained his instincts last night, but from here on out the President will march to his own drummer.
Perhaps the most discussed issue by both campaigns concerns the reliability and predictability of the polling. All pollsters are still suffering from their errors in 2016 and many are being very cautious in considering the extent of shy or disreputable responders to pollsters. At the same time, the consistency of Biden’s leads and the incremental nature of its growth is consistent with most cautious polling models. The lack of any dramatic shifts suggests that the current numbers—baring some extraordinary event—are likely to hold on November 3; both in the popular vote as well as in crucial swing states.
In addition, election 2020 has shown a dramatic increase in the number of early and “by-mail” voters. There reportedly are 240 million eligible voters today in the country. Assuming an increase of 1-2% in the number of voters this year to perhaps 62% of those eligible, the 47 million Americans who have already cast their votes represent almost a third of the 150 million votes expected to be cast. Twelve days before Election Day, the absentee and early vote totals already exceed the number of early and mail-in votes cast in 2016.
It is important to consider two additional factors with respect to early and mailed-in votes. These votes were cast before the final debate and remain impervious to any additional activities which may occur during the closing days of the campaign. Both the Trump and the Biden campaigns dispute whether these so called “baked-in” votes were largely Republican or Democratic votes. Given the extent that the Trump campaign sought to challenge the reliability of mail-in votes, however, most analysts suggest that a significantly higher percent of these votes will be Democratic. These voters responded to Biden’s call to vote early.
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