As America enjoyed the Memorial Day weekend and the beginning of summer 2022—hopefully with much of the country in cautiously better health—it seems as if the war in Ukraine had fallen off the public’s consciousness. As the nation grieved over the tragic events in Ulvade, Texas, Ukraine’s small steps of progress have largely gone unnoticed. Congress was out of town and Americans were tending to their barbeques as the war in Ukraine past its 100th day.
This has not been the quick Russian victory that President Vladimir Putin had predicted. The winter weather moved through the muddy spring as troops now settle in for what is looking like what will be a long slugfest. Western weapons are pouring into Ukraine as President Biden is now reported to be considering providing the Ukrainians with offensive weapons including multiple head missiles.
The Russians, meanwhile, have instituted their classic horrific scorched earth policy of bombing and destroying a city until all that is left is stones and rubble. For the Russians, there are no such things as civilians. Anyone who is not on their sides is an enemy combatant. As they did in Mariupol, Russia is now engaging Ukraine by bombarding the towns and cities in the Donbas and Donetsk regions. They largely are attacking the cities by cutting off the water supply and electricity while destroying city streets and blocks of housing.
One should not assume that the West was forsaking Ukraine as it addresses its own growing economic crises amidst a growing inflation. The European oil and gas reliant nations, after lengthy negotiations appear to have agreed on an oil embargo on ship borne oil (as opposed to gas-line delivered oil). This should reduce the Western consumption of Russian oil by at least 2/3 at the end of the year.
Like the war itself, negotiations among the European powers did not move nearly as fast as had been hoped. Much of the opposition and procrastination was initiated by Viktor Orban, Putin’s one remaining apparent friend in the E.U., Hungary, had demanded no embargo but settled for no embargo on oil being delivered over the pipelines.
No one is expecting Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. The Ukrainian military has been remarkably successful on the battlefield, while the Russian performance has been surprisingly limp. Now it is reported that the Russian people are beginning to feel an economic pinch, but not until the real hard sanctions are in place next winter are the people even likely to consider pushing back.
At the same time there is a curious scenario which could develop next month when President Joe Biden travels to the Middle East. Many have seen the Biden trip as an effort to put his own stamp on resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. He will indicate a renewed U.S. interest in pursuing a negotiated two-state solution, and even push Israel to permit the U.S. to re-open a consulate for Palestinians in East Jerusalem. All of this, however, is a sideshow for Biden’s real focus.
President Biden and the current Administration is interested in re-setting U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia. He will seek to reach out to Crown Prince Mohammed bin-Salam with respect to U.S. policy in the Gulf, Biden will try to persuade the Saudis to possibly joining the Abraham accords, and also hold direct conversation about the state of the Iranian threat, absent a new Iran Accords package.
There might actually be a further surprise in these talks. Given Europe’s decision to reduce dramatically their purchase of Russian oil, Biden may try to motivate MBS to increase Saudi production to help those nations engaged in fighting Russia. What the U.S. side of the deal would be is not clear, but it seems that the Saudi’s might be willing to reassert a more prominent and public role in the Gulf politically which the U.S. could foster. President Biden could deliver increased oil production for the E.U which has stepped up in a united fashion to fight the Russians. Finally, the President could demonstrate to the American people how he has effectively re-engaged the U.S. in the world.
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