Monday/Tuesday will mark the end of Ramadan in the Muslim world with the Feast of Eid al-Fitr. For Middle East observers this period is always fraught with stress particularly this year when Easter Holy Week and the holiday of Passover occurred in the middle of the month in which Ramadan fell. Jerusalem and the Al Aksa Mosque are places where tensions between the faiths frequently erupt. When the religious festivals of the major faiths overlap so perfectly, concern for violence invariably is elevated. While there were confrontations this year in Jerusalem and especially on the Temple Mount, the overall situation between Israelis and Palestinians was relatively contained.
While it appears that Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett as well as Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas sought to contain more the militant and aggressive elements, the major player who has received only minimum credit for tamping down possible violence was President Joe Biden and his foreign policy advisers. President Biden spoke with many of the leaders in the region in addition to Bennett and Abbas, including the leaders in Jordan, the Emirates, and Morocco. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and his team went to the region to ensure that while some of the rhetoric was angry and aggressive, there were no calls for a jihad or encouragement of terrorism. In fact, while some observers were concerned that the rhetoric might escalate into a reassessment by some of Arab countries of the Abraham Accords, this too did not occur.
The timing of the regular Ramadan confrontations is caused by the believed threat by many in the Muslim world of a potential Israeli takeover of the Al Aksa Mosque and the entire Temple Mount Plaza. The religious holiday combined by the holiness of the shrine creates an element of concern within the Muslim world especially when so many Muslims seek to pray there during Ramadan. The religious dimension unifies the Muslim world at this time, not the politics. The general concern is what galvanizes some of the more radical elements--especially young, alienated Muslims in Jerusalem--to advocate for a more violent confrontation with Israelis.
Among Israelis, especially some of the more extreme, religious nationalists—many of whom advocate annexation of the Temple Mount—they have no problem goading Israeli authorities into action to protect their rights to “unbridled” access to the Temple Mount. These activists, who now include extremist Knesset Members, have no problem creating a confrontation with the Muslims, necessitating the intercession of various police and military units.
For the U.S., its continuing efforts to expand and strengthen the growing Israeli relationships with the Arab World is crucial. Efforts to disrupt the blossoming Abraham Accords ultimately could have bearing on U.S. security relations, economic necessities, and peace-making opportunities in the region. Sustaining and expanding this initiative is a priority for the Biden Administration.
For President Abbas, reality on the ground in the West Bank (and even for Hamas in Gaza) is about improving economic prosperity for his people. Over the past year Israel once again has opened up many more opportunities for Palestinians to work in Israel, to grow their economy, and to elevate their opportunities for a real future. The people in the street appear to have very little patience for a confrontation with Israel; despite the terrorist incidents at least some of the perpetrators having come from the refugee camps and the areas immediately adjacent to Jenin. Many Palestinians see the Arabs living in Israel as their model for a genuine future and are becoming less interested in escalated military confrontations. It must be recognized on the West Bank as well as in Israel, how significant it is that Israel now has a Government with Arabs in the coalition. They recognize that this is a far better future for Palestinians than terrorism.
Prime Minister Bennett is playing ball far better with Washington than did Netanyahu who dealt only with Trump, played to that audience, and stifled the Democrats. Bennett has returned Israel to a more traditional, statesmanlike relationship with the U.S. The defense establishment, the Jerusalem police, and the border patrol also were clearly on notice not to create any incitements or do anything that could appear to be provocative during this period. Bennett did not want a repeat of last year’s events which precipitated a brief war in Gaza. After the Prime Minister demonstrated a strong hand following the four terrorist incidents which preceded or coincided with the beginning of Ramadan, the holidays passed with a minimum of disturbance.
Bennett still has one additional problem. He needs to demonstrate that he and his party are prepared to take the heat in clamping down on the radical religious extremists. Bennett will be challenged again by the right-wing religious radicals who will march through the Old City on Jerusalem Day which will be celebrated this year on May 28/29, commemorating Jerusalem’s 1967 reunification. Similarly, there will be Arab demonstrations on Nakba (the catastrophe) Day, May 15, commemorating the British departure from Palestine in 1948 and Israel’s independence.
Assuming Bennett will successfully navigate these two hurdles he then will be able to return to the more underlying problems such as rebuilding his fractured coalition and buttressing support against any Iran deal.
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