There is something boring yet scary about the 2024 election season, certainly at the presidential level. The presidential contest has settled into a rhythm that is totally predictable. Nightly newscasts appear to be repackaging earlier stories and repeating the same non-breaking, not exciting, “news breaking” stories. It is not only that the candidates stump speeches are getting stale, but both former President Donald Trump and Vice-President Kamala Harris are struggling to emerge out of their predictable campaign modes without appearing to move their support needle outside of the margins of error. Harris is getting boring while Trump is getting outrageous.
Harris is stepping out and holding more interviews but is anyone really listening. Trump is intensifying his false statements and lie, but no one except his core voters and the media appear to be listening. Domestic and global issues—from hurricanes to the Middle East—are not energizing either candidate to step out of their predictable responses. The tone and the venues are changing, but there is not much action. Trump gets nastier and Harris remains scripted and tempered.
Many people are waiting for 2024’s October surprise. Barring a major explosion in Iran or Ukraine, there is little likelihood that there will be any breaking news to galvanize the American people out of their lethargy and which would incentivize independents and undecided. Most scholars and political observers are clearly of the impression that this year’s presidential election could portend very serious consequences to the United States, to the West, as well as the future of democracy; but even that black cloud does not appear to be motivating the public. Most of the political pundits continue to predict a very tight election with no final decision likely for at least several days after voting has concluded; so much for the technological age.
According to some recent surveys there remain some significant changes which could well occur in the formation of the next Congress. Recent polling has consistently confirmed that the Democrats have a serious chance to regain control of the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress scheduled to convene on January 3, 2025. This is likely especially if the Democrats succeed in picking up several seats in California and New York.
There are serious questions whether the Democrats can maintain control of the Senate in January. They currently hold a 47-49 majority with the help of four independent Senators. Democratic control will be seriously affected as the West Virginia seat held by retiring Senator Joe Manchin (an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats) is expected to flip to the Republican, Jim Justice. In addition, Democratic Senator Jon Tester continues to be under a very severe challenge from businessman Tim Sheehy in his bid for re-election in Montana. If the contests in Montana and West Virginia go Republican the Democrats likely will lose control of the Senate.
Curiously, there have of late been three Republican held Senate seats which some reliable analysts are beginning to believe could actually be in play. If the Democrats win any of these three contests plus the tie-breaking vote of a Democratic Vice-President, they still could maintain control of the Senate. If they actually could flip two of them, Democrats likely would control the Senate outright.
In Nebraska, Republican incumbent Senator Deb Fisher has found herself in an unexpectedly tight re-election race against Dan Osborn, who is running as an Independent. Osborn has crept up on Fisher and the race is no longer being called as “likely” Republican but only as “leaning” Republican.
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n Florida Senator Rick Scott is running for a second term. He has faced a stronger than expected challenge from Republican Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. In Trump’s adopted home state where the former President is running ahead of Vice-President Harris by over 6 points, Senator Scott is trending down only to a 4.5% lead. His race is rated now a “toss-up” despite the fact that the race already had been generally expected to tighten up.
Finally, the contest in Texas where incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz was expected to win easily has turned into a much tighter contest against Democratic Representative Colin Allred. Reliable polling now has been suggesting that Cruz’s lead is down to between a 3-5% gap. In previous Senate races Cruz also had obtained victory by smaller gaps than had been anticipated. As Trump is likely to carry Texas handily, an Allred victory would need to be achieved with significant ticket-splitting by Texans.
Aside from the already swing seats where incumbents are under pressure, these three states have emerged in the closing weeks as potential surprises. Their results obviously could affect control of the Senate. What is perhaps even more significant is that in the event of Republican control of the Senate it would be critically important in sustaining the future of an already 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court for decades, in the filing of any vacancies should they occur.
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