As was suggested a few weeks ago by the Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan with respect to former President Trump’s continuing tales of woe, so is it clear that the State of Israel and its future as a democratic state also could be facing its own Battle of Waterloo over the next several days. Now with the first phase of Netanyahu’s coalition’s planned votes on the proposed judicial reform package scheduled for this week, there is a very real sense that Israel’s future may hinge on the vote in the Israeli Knesset.
With thousands of Israelis crowding the streets in Tel-Aviv in support of the Government and marching to and in the streets of Jerusalem opposing the forthcoming votes, last minute negotiations to work out a compromise actually appear to be proceeding in the Prime Minister’s home. An additional wrinkle in these proceedings was the hospitalization of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for the second time in a week for cardiac arrhythmias and related concerns.
There are several critical issues which must be resolved quickly by the Government if both political stability and national security are to be maintained in Israel. While there are serious political differences within the governing coalition as to how far and fast to push the desired judicial reforms, the likely consequences to Israel’s future could be catastrophic.
Not only will a final vote on this scheduled phase of the reform package impact the judiciary, but it will also set off an immediate confrontation with the very Courts it is seeking to reform. The Courts are likely to strike down at least part of this proposal, forcing the hand of the Government to accede to its demands and back down, or rollover the Courts. If the Government agrees to pullback from implementing the legislation, Netanyahu’s coalition could implode.
If the Government continues willy-nilly to implement the new legislation, there appears to be a real possibility that Israel’s entire military—especially initially the Air Force and Intelligence apparatus—will balk at carrying out military training and orders. As a largely civilian military, with all Israelis, following the 24-32 months of compulsory service after high school, maintaining various degrees of reserve preparedness into their 40’s, a declaration by reservists not to report for training will undermine the viability of the IDF to defend the country. With 1142 air force reservists—including pilots—already pledging to abstain from regular reserve training, Israel and its defense apparatus could lead to near collapse.
At the same time there are reports that the labor unions and major sectors of the robust Israeli economy—including hospitals--are facing a situation where workers are prepared to walk-out and boycott their jobs. Demonstrations in the street appear to be escalating on both sides of the reform legislation.
Underlying these actions are several fundamental questions which are being raised by this confrontation besides the obvious right-left, settler-two states, and religious-secular divides. First, what are the obligations of the military in a democracy to obey a legal demand which they view as illegitimate? When may soldiers and officers disregard orders of political leaders? What will be the consequences for Israel as a country if the threat by members of Israel’s civilian military to disobey orders to report for training/duty is carried out?
Second and at an even more fundamental level, can and will Israel survive as a democratic state, regardless of how this political crisis is resolved? Are the hardline supporters on both sides—both the political leaders as well as those in the street—prepared to step back from this abyss and develop a compromise? Will cooler heads prevail and calm the confrontation? Will this action constitute a precedent?
Finally, it is very clear that at the moment, this crisis is strictly one which must be resolved by the citizens of Israel. Whatever be the ties between Israelis and Jews around the world, this immediate crisis is Israel’s alone to solve. Similarly, regardless of the advice that President Biden gave Prime Minister Netanyahu in their telephone conversation last week or messages that he sent with President Herzog when they met last week in the Oval Office, the desires of the U.S. will not be the primary dealmakers for either side.
Voting is scheduled for Monday at noon but if discussions actually are proceeding, this deadline could be pushed back—especially given Bibi’s medical scare--but not beyond Tuesday. Israel and the Jewish people could face observing the saddest day on the Jewish calendar, Tisha b’Av, (commemorating the destruction of the two Holy Temples in Jerusalem as well as other sad events in Jewish history) this Thursday, with the modern state of Israel entering an exceedingly frightening future.
I think the judicial reform clash is overblown. The left is overreacting. The judiciary needs reform. The Supreme Court should not be able to opine on a matter that it lacks jurisdiction over. Do you disagree? The justices should also be chosen independently. Right?