The Israel-Hamas War has descended into the ugly depths of a game of Chinese water torture, except that it is not a game, and it is being played with real people’s lives. Hamas has achieved pleasure in letting the families of the Israeli hostages be thrown into a state of continuous emotional turmoil not knowing who, when, whether, of if their loved ones will be released, and, if so, whether they are even alive.
Israel continuous to interpret and re-consider what it must do and when to relieve the plight of the Palestinian victims languishing in Gaza. The world has seen a sudden tripling of the desperately needed humanitarian relief now flowing into Gaza for the innocent Palestinians, following months of death, starvation and disease. Hundreds of incarcerated Arab terrorists are being released from Israeli jails, Israelis languish in captivity, and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu considers every decision on his own cynical scale weighing out his own personal and coalition’s viability.
Most Israelis are beginning to presume that the seven hostages released in the first two exchanges may well be those alive and in the best physical condition. Both sides know that the emotional eruption in Israel as well as from many international observers--when the injured, dead, and mutilated bodies are released—are likely to create an uproar of sympathy for Israel. Netanyahu’s cynical procrastination for their release after so many months will now be tested politically within Israel, as the public demands completion of the deal--regardless of the political costs. There will be heightened recognition that Bibi’s desire to continue the fight to achieve his goals in the Gaza War was impossible.
Israel’s standing and its national cohesion may well now depend on whether President Trump agrees to Netanyahu’s regional scenario and timetable. When they reportedly are scheduled to meet in February, in addition to discussing Iran as well as Israel’s 10-year military request list, President Trump will undoubtedly deliver to Bibi his own timeline within which his Administration wants the ceasefire in Gaza finalized.
President Trump wants to move ahead and expand the Abraham Accords with the inclusion of Saudi Arabia. For the Saudis to agree to recognition of Israel and for Trump to achieve his goal of the Nobel Peace Prize, Israel will need to acquiesce to recognition of some form of two-state solution with the Palestinians.
The extreme right-wing coalition, over which Netanyahu presides, appears to be unlikely to move in that direction even after a ceasefire is made permanent in Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu is sufficiently risk-averse that he will not want to see his coalition dissolve and go to national elections any time before he legally is required to do so, in October 2026. If he is convicted in any of his on-going corruption trials, it appears that baring a pardon or a political deal, Netanyahu will need to remain in power to avoid incarceration.
This possible scenario also shows how Netanyahu might respond to any deal that President Trump will press upon Israel. The only card that Netanyahu might be able to play would be to gain Trump’s support for an Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear sites, assisted by or with U.S. manufactured 2000-pound bombs.
A further factor concerns the ability to achieve a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. It is undetermined what terms Hamas will accept for the future governing of Gaza as well whom they will accept to orchestrate the rebuilding of Gaza. It remains unclear what can be offered to Hamas that would encourage their leaders to acquiesce to a transitional stage in Gaza, especially if it would not lead to their eventual regaining political control or at least joint participation in the administration of Gaza in the future. Furthermore, Hamas appears to actively be pursuing its goal of strengthening its control on the West Bank.
Given the fact that Mahmoud Abbas, despite his age, has shown little intent to resign and with no serious leadership emerging among the West Bank Palestinians, Hamas, undoubtedly, views the likelihood of their gaining political control of the West Bank increasing plausible. Here as well the interests of Israel’s extreme right-wing Government will be a major obstacle, perhaps even more so on the West Bank than in Gaza.
Finally, it remains to be seen how persuasive President Trump can be to influence other players in the region to accept whatever deal emerges. Not only must Hamas and the Palestinian Authority comply with the ceasefire but there will need to be understandings reached with Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey. Soon, Trump also will be unable to blame the unresolved Gaza conflict on ineffective diplomacy by the Biden Administration. It is not clear at all whether Trump’s bullying style will be as effective in dealing with these States as he has been so far with Israel.
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