The French people have spoken and re-elected Emmanuel Macron for a second term. President Macron defeated Marine Le Pen in the run-off election on Sunday 58.5-41.5%. Macron’s clear victory was not perfect and not without serious political concerns for the future direction of French politics.
For the moment, the French chose to continue the Republic. The French did reject a right-wing extremist candidate and decided to keep Macron, a moderate democrat, in power. French voters rose to the challenge to democracy posed by Le Pen and opted for stability
This polarizing election presents a serious challenge for Macron. He needs to govern in a way that respects the will of the voters. Le Pen will be back in five years and the right will not disappear. Macron’s win did not give him carte blanche to go merrily on his way. Elections for the General Assembly are scheduled for June 12 with run-offs for the 577 seats on June 19.
Even in his “victory” speech Marcon was comparatively low-key as he if he understood that his victory over Le Pen was not necessarily a vote of confidence for his Administration. In fact, it was as much a paean as much for Europe as it was for France.
Sunday’s election also needs to be processed together within the context of the earlier first round of voting on April 10, in which Macron only received 27.9 % of the vote; only 4.6% more than Le Pen. When all the extremist candidates in the first round--both on the left and the right-- are tallied, together, they received approximately 52% of the vote.
This Sunday’s turnout, 71.9%, was the lowest it had been in France since 1969. In addition, many voters actually went to the polls and cast a “no choice” vote. They did not just stay home which many did but went to polls and cast a “plague on both of you” vote. Political unrest is obviously deep when a majority of the nation favors extremists.
Many voters clearly voted against Le Pen and not for Macron. While America and other countries frequently have candidates winning because a candidate represents “the best of two evils”, in France the voters were definitive in this statement based on exit polling.
Analysts recognize that the unrest among the French populace runs deep. There are huge gaps in the nation between regions of the country; between rural and urban sectors; between the elites and the masses; among sizeable, growing immigrant population, and among the usual French economic classes.
On the other hand, voters recognized that with the severe Covid crisis, the Ukraine War, and the Russian threat, France’s place in the European alliance demanded a government united with its European partners. The people were not suggesting an overall vote of confidence in Macron, but they did not want an extreme change—now. They feared an extremist more than a less than overwhelmingly popular incumbent. Their hope is that Macron can rise to the occasion and address France’s future more assertively and confidently.
Most important is that unlike the U.S., for example, the French voters understood that Le Pen truly represented a threat to democracy as did the parties of the left in round one. There is undoubtedly a deep level of unrest and angst among the French voters. France has a long and deep tradition of radicalism which hardly was satisfied by Sunday’s results, but for the moment Macron gave France, Europe, and the world a sense that democracy must be the way forward.
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Meanwhile…
There is an important footnote to the actions of the French voters occurring across the Channel in Westminster. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is clinging to his leadership of the Conservative Party, despite major calls now from within his own party to step-down after his scandalous behavior during the “lockdown”, in what is now being call “Partygate”. No one believes that general elections in Britain are imminent, but most Tories also recognize that they do not have a strong, dynamic, rising leader to replace Johnson. The challenge for the politically strong Conservative Party majority is whether they will follow their back-bencher revolt and oust Johnson and uphold democratic values. The Mother of all democracies ought not tolerate corrupt politicians and permit them to remain in office.
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Finally at Home…
Both the French and the Brits can look across the pond at their “baby” democratic sibling in the U.S. and observe as America grows daily farther and farther away from affirming democratic values. They are watching the shenanigans of the Republican Party leaders as they salivate at the prospect of regaining leadership Congress next November and in the White House in two more years. The farthest thing from their mind is to assert democratic values and to lead the nation. Policy making has been replaced by a cultural war being fed by MAGA minions and their elected “leaders” for whom lying and denial has become and art form. Watching the breakdown of the institutions of the U.S. Government-- reaching now even into the judicial branch—indicates that democracy is probably in more serious danger in the U.S. today than during the Civil War.
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