When presidential elections are held most of the American public focuses its attention on domestic politics with little consideration on foreign policy. Except for a war or the perennial big tag items, voters tend to ignore international relations. It is domestic crises which motivate the voters. Historically, however, presidents—once in office--have tended to spend more than 50% of their time addressing global issues and foreign relations. February 2023, which is not over yet, more than has confirmed this pattern. In fact, just when you thought global politics could not possibly have gotten worse or more complicated, Russia now has decided to suspend its participation in the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement with the United States.
Over the past few weeks:
The United States shot down a Chinese spy balloon over the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of South Carolina. This occurred after the balloon had been tracked as it traversed the continental United States for days. While China has denied it was spying on the U.S., Secretary of State Anthony Blinken cancelled his China trip and then confronted the Chinese Foreign Secretary at the Munich Security Conference. (The White House also had to address the three non-Chinese balloons [reportedly costing $10/each] which were shot down as well by Sidewinder missiles [costing approximately $439,000/each].)
Regardless of the details as well as the extent to which such overflights have been conducted regularly and similarly by the U.S., the case made by the U.S. over the balloon has clearly ratcheted up the friction between the U.S. and China. Certainly, the main area of tension between the two countries remains the status and future of Taiwan.
It is unknown for how long China will restrain itself from fabricating a pretense to take-over Taiwan. President Xi understands that the U.S. remains deeply engaged in Taiwan. Part of Secretary Blinken’s cancelled visit and his very sharp subsequent meeting in Munich with China’s senior diplomat Wang Yi, undoubtedly addressed this issue. Blinken also highlighted U.S. concerns about China’s growing military relationship with Russia to give aid for the war in Ukraine, considering China’s desire to rebuild its economic relationship with the West.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to London earlier this month as well as his meeting with the European Parliament in Brussels underscored Ukraine’s continuing effort to secure sufficient political and especially military support from its European friends and neighbors. It was also a further demonstration to President Putin that Ukraine is engaged in the war for the long haul.
At the same time Vice-President Kamala Harris as well as Secretary Blinken made clear that the U.S. commitment to Ukraine was also on-going. They reenforced President Biden’s conversations with other NATO allies that they too must continue to sustain Ukraine’s war effort. The fact that Russia continues to flay about on the battlefield while persisting in lobbing artillery shells and missiles into Ukrainian civilian areas only acts as a catalyst for the West to offer aid to enable the Ukrainians to prepare for the expected Russian spring offensive.
Finally, only today President Putin intensified his confrontation with the West, by announcing the Kremlin’s suspension of Russia’s participation in the remaining START arms control agreement. This action does not have any immediate impact, but it serves to underscore even more clearly that Putin wants to disassociate Russia as much as possible from vestiges of the previous post-Soviet era of détente, glasnost, and perestroika. It provides him with the quasi-legal framework to justify the use of tactical nuclear weapons eventually in Ukraine.
President Biden’s speech in Warsaw, following only hours after those of President Putin, reiterated without addressing the matter of the treaty directly, that the U.S. had united its European allies in a determined effort to force Russia out of Ukraine. Biden affirmed continued U.S./NATO support for all of Russia and Ukraine’s bordering neighbors. Washington indicated it was committed to preventing Russia from expanding the war.
It is in light of examining the first three weeks of this month that one comprehends the amount of time that a President must devote to foreign policy. Without minimizing matters like addressing two major train derailments, avoiding exceeding the borrowing level on the national debt, or submitting the overdue FY 2024 budget, President Biden like all presidents, faces a constant barrage of national security issues.
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