If the new Israeli Government actually is sworn in within the next two weeks after additional political gamesmanship and antics from Binyamin Netanyahu, it will be a dramatic change for many Israelis. After twelve years and a series of governments, as well as four elections in two years, Israel will now have a government in which Netanyahu will not be the Prime Minister.
There is much to be said about this proposed eight-party coalition government but its one binding thread is not policy or ideology but personality. These very, very disparate parties agree on one fundamental principle, it was time for someone other than Binyamin Netanyahu to be the head of government.
Aside from the fact that many of these factions have very different party platforms, there is something remarkable about this potential coalition--as well as its fragility. For example, this potential government will have Arab membership—actual buy-in—to a governing coalition of Zionists (of numerous stripes.) It will be led by an Orthodox Jew but will be a government without the participation of the any of the ultra-Orthodox parties. This coalition will be led by a prime minister whose party has one of the smallest number of seats in the new Parliament. It will also be a government which will find itself facing a leader of the opposition who, personally, has far greater recognition as well as political and diplomatic experience than do the leading ministers of the coalition combined. This would also be a government in which the deal-maker’s party, Yesh Atid, has ten more seats in the Knesset than does the party of the prime minister.
The test for Naphtali Bennett will be a personal one as well as an ideological one. As has so often been said about politics, campaigning is much easier than governing. Bennett needs to test whether he can move ahead on a very mixed domestic agenda—parts of which will undoubtedly enrage some members of his coalition—as long as he acquiesces to at least some of their demands. Will the parties accept a partial loaf, or will they dig in their heels? If the coalition pushes back, there is no doubt that the Israelis will be returning to the polls post haste. If Bennett demonstrates a sophisticated, non-belligerent style he could fool many of both his supporters and detractors. If he retreats into a highly politicized approach to buttress his Yamina Party, his coalition will break quickly. Bennett’s job will be to convince his partners to accept the fact that being in power is better than being in the opposition. He will either succeed in moving the hard-right to compromise or this government will be extremely short-lived.
For Bennett, the challenge on geopolitical and security questions will be even greater than on domestic issues. Bennett will need to consider the following: will he stonewall any negotiations with the Palestinians; will he reach out to Mahmoud Abbas; will he seek to continue to expand the Abraham Accords; how hard will he follow the Netanyahu line on Iran; and how much leeway in defense and foreign policy will he grant to Gantz and Lapid? In historical terms, one can ask another the question: will Bennett surprise his right wing as did Prime Minister Ariel Sharon (2001-2006) and Prime Minister Menachem Begin (1977-1983) or is he too hard line or, being untested, too afraid to breakout of the expected mold?
One of the striking images worth contemplating which will be a true indicator for Bennett, will be in observing his conduct on the global stage. Bennett is 49 years old and certainly has had very few personal interactions with global leaders. There will be a critical period of testing which he will undergo on the world stage and among his domestic critics. One needs only to recall the scenario when a young, 44-year-old President John Kennedy first met Nikita Khrushchev in Vienna in June 1961. It was after the fiasco of the Bay of Pigs invasion and was followed by the Berlin blockade and airlift that summer. According to most scholars, the Soviet leader could not believe that this “young” man was capable of being America’s president. For Bennett it will be fascinating to watch how Biden, Johnson, Macron, Merkel, Abbas, Putin, Xi-Jinping, and all the regional Arab leaders react to him.
Finally, the question is the role of Yair Lapid, who was the real kingmaker and the true winner in this battle to oust Netanyahu. As he would become prime minister only in 2023, he will receive credit for what he accomplished and will not be responsible for any mistakes Bennett makes. Whenever the next election occurs, Lapid will be able to claim for himself the success that many in the center and left consider a major political accomplishment, the removal of Bibi from office.
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