The presidential nominating process for the November 2024 election for the Republicans is slowly beginning to move into high gear and is looking like the three-ring circus it was expected to be. What was originally presumed to be a contest whether anyone could seize the nomination from Governor Ron DeSantis, then moved on to can anyone catch former President Donald Trump, has now become a multi-hat race. With former Vice-President Mike Pence, former Governor/U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Senator Tim Scott already in the race as Governor DeSantis officially announced his entre today, the ugliness and attacking inevitably will begin.
The “Anybody but Trump” and the “Never Trumpers” movements are now jockeying to find an alternative horse upon which to ride. They are doing so as the former President reportedly is leading DeSantis in polls by 40 percent for the nomination—prior to his announcement. The anti-Trump Republicans, especially any of the remaining more moderate one’s, have problems with most of the candidates except perhaps Haley. While Haley’s campaign has raised considerable money, it has barely made a dent in the polls.
The Republicans have attractive, young (except for Trump) candidates, but it is by no means obvious that any of the nominees will be able to engage the 35% secure Trump base on many of their most salient issues. As these nominee seekers address the voters with a hard right position on abortion, guns, immigration, and schools—for example—it will create only more trouble for the Republicans in the general election. Women, suburbanites, and independents are much more likely to be turned-off by these extreme right positions as they were in 2020 and 2022. The substantive differences among this group of leading Republicans is not significant.
If the issue will be who is best able to defeat President Biden, it will only emerge after much blood will have been spilled during the rough and tumble campaign that appears to be shaping up. Assuming DeSantis and Trump eventually succeed in knocking out the rest of field of announced aspirants, the dirt that likely will be thrown as these two candidates fight their way through the primaries could make Trump’s 2016 nominating campaign look like a walk in the park.
Attacking a sitting president is a standard procedure, but to pull votes from the Democrats, the candidates—other than Trump—need to attract primary support away from Trump. If they fail to do so they will not succeed in gaining sufficient delegates to be nominated. The early debates among the Republicans—especially before Iowa and New Hampshire—will be crucial if any of the candidates can demonstrate an ability to unsettle or unnerve Trump. Total focus on President Biden will not provide Trump supporters cause to switch their allegiance.
The one unknown which will undoubtedly impact the Republican primaries will be the pending Trump lawsuits. The distractions of numerous, simultaneous litigation involving Donald Trump will present a major focus during the height of Republican primary season. Additional indictments, motions, and even trials are likely to be issued as early as this summer and Trump will be hard pressed to avoid being distracted by them. While Trump will deal with his legal problems, the competition will undoubtedly be winnowed down. Repeated attacks on President Biden, the Justice Department, and the numerous state and local prosecutors, will never have staying power. If the former President pulls back from participating in the debates, on the other hand, his large lead may well dissipate. If Trump loses the nomination, will his troops feel heated and stay home? Will Trump sabotage a Republican nominee by mounting a third-party campaign which will insure a Biden re-election?
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden can remain presidential and stay away from the nominating fights. The current thinking is that Biden would have the best odds to be re-elected if he had to run again against Trump. If the Republican primary season is nasty, and if Trump were not the nominee, the Republicans’ nominating campaign may well provide the President with enough ammunition to keep his re-election on track.
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Footnote
Campaign 2024 once again exemplifies the amount of money that can and is being spent on political campaigns. Where once the laws capped the various campaign contributions permitted from different sources, since the 2010 Citizens United vs. FEC case as well as the 2013 McCutcheon vs. FEC case, the amount of money now involved in political elections is astronomical. The Federal Election Commission records indicate that in 2008, the total amount spent on all elections by all parties was $4.1 billion with $2.8 billion on presidential elections. In 2020, all parties spent a total of $14.4 billion, with $5.7 billion on presidential elections.
Modern electronic age political campaigns are preposterously expensive, but millions of dollars are now permitted to flow from multiple sources with no ceiling in sight. If a potential candidate has the resources, anyone can sustain a campaign. This very phenomenon has added another sad dimension to the immorality of American politics and the potential for corruption.
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