Israel is now in the second week of its war against Hamas. The people of Israel are trying to rebound from the horrific tragedy perpetrated against Jews in Southern Israel by a terrorist organization whose stated raison d’etre is to eliminate the Jewish State. It clearly seeks to accomplish this by murdering and torturing Jews, regardless of their age, sex, innocence, or beliefs. They appear to have no interest whatsoever in creating a viable modus vivendi with Israel.
The Israeli military has admitted its failures and has regrouped impressively as it prepares for a likely land assault in Gaza. Similarly, the intelligence community has accepted much blame already for having let down the country but remains determined to repair the damage and regain the respect from the Israeli people. It is only the political leadership which has embarrassed itself before the Israeli people. It appears to be hunkering down in place, refusing to step forward and take responsibility for dereliction of duty to the people of Israel. For Israel to move ahead now with its military mission, there is a vital need for the Government to regain the confidence of the Israeli people. They need to believe that there indeed are serious political leaders at the helm of the ship of state. To date, after ten days of conflict, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is certainly not the person.
The Hamas attack from Gaza appears to have placed Israel between a stone and a hard place on multiple levels: political, humanitarian, strategic, and tactical. There are desperate humanitarian considerations involving approximately 150 hostages, not all of whom are Israeli. A land invasion will cost significant numbers of human lives on both sides with potential door-to-door fighting in Gaza in houses and tunnels, all of which may be booby-trapped. There is real difficulty in determining what a potential endgame to an invasion might look like. Is there a resolution achievable without an Israeli invasion of Gaza? Does Hamas have reasonable goal? No one can anticipate what might be the regional and global consequences for Israel and her neighbors, should a negotiated deal be reached or even a process begun or, alternatively, if it only precipitates more of the same.
President Biden has instructed Secretary of State Tony Blinken to remain in the region as long as he believes that progress can be achieved to at least bring home U.S. citizens held hostage by Hamas. (If the reported possibility that President Biden himself may fly to Israel, it would suggest a likelihood that an end to the war has been negotiated.)
Secretary Blinken, meanwhile, clearly has received instructions to take his negotiations to a high regional level. While totally focused on the hostages, Blinken appears to be seeking to facilitate some form of relief for the thousands of refugees from Gaza fleeing south. Israel already resumed waterpower to south Gaza and food is being arranged to be sent in by other sources. Blinken is pressuring the Egyptian Government to open the plug at the Rafiah crossing to permit Gazans an escape route from an Israeli attack in Northern Gaza. By playing this card, Blinken probably is offering new chits for the Egyptian Government which could help Egypt economically and even militarily. Regional stability is critical for Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi as well as for the U.S., the Saudis, and the Emirates. El-Sisi, meanwhile, is very cautious about acting in a manner which could stir-up radical anti-Government and pro-Hamas forces in Egypt.
The Saudis appear prepared to moderate their criticism if it might facilitate their achieving some of the goals, they have been discussing with the Biden Administration as well as with Israel.
Finally, all of these parties as well as American and Israeli European allies are extremely interested in insuring that Iran does not escalate the conflict directly or through its surrogates.
For the United States and Israel, the biggest question, outside of the hostages and the humanitarian crisis, is what is transpiring along Israel’s border with Syria and Lebanon. Specifically, how much more trouble is Iran prepared to pursue while Israel is engaged in a war in the South. Israel also must control better the vigilante groups of West Bank settlers and radical Palestinians who are using this moment to disrupt any form of status quo ante.
Finally Israeli politicians—including hopefully Prime Minister Netanyahu—recognize the enormous toll this horrific attack has taken on the county, including on its national psyche. Having now presided over an unprecedented moment in Israel’s history, the current Government, as did that of Prime Minister Golda Meir’s after the Yom Kippur War, must understand the political price it will have to bear—sooner rather than later.
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