After months of campaigning and millions of dollars having been spent, Americans finally go to the polls today in the 2022 off-year election. They will not match the turnout of the 2020 presidential election year when more than 168 million voters or 66.8% of those eligible cast ballots in the height of the COVID epidemic. This year the number still is expected to be very high for a non-presidential year, around 50%. This is evident by the fact that there already have been over 40 million votes cast by absentee or early-voters.
It is likely that this year’s campaigns will have cost individuals, political actions committees, corporations, and parties in excess of $2 billion dollars; much of that money will have been spent in losing races. This preposterous cost, in the midst of the economic difficulties facing the country at this time is enough to question what ails the U.S. electoral process. Unfortunately, there is an even more troublesome challenge that this year’s campaigns have produced.
As happened in 2020, candidates—generally losing ones—again will challenge the legitimacy of the various elections and state tallies. While DonaldTrump never won a single court case in any of his efforts to overturn the 2020 elections, Trump persisted and still asserts that he was the rightful winner in the 2020 presidential campaign. His repeated declaration that the election was stolen was the chant of the rioters on the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. His and their determination to overturn election results is already in its preparatory stages as voters go to vote today. Counts will be challenged, poll watchers will be charged, and efforts to intimidate state officials will be widespread.
Undoubtedly, given the number of absentee and early voting ballots which will remain unopened until after the in-person voting concludes, many congressional races may well be much too close to call for a day or so. This is not the problem. The issue is whether when the results are certified, will they be accepted. There is a distinct possibility that this will not be the case in many states where it will be determined that Republican candidates lost.
It is precisely at that point that American democracy will be severely tested. Specifically, it remains to be seen if there are Republican losers who will accept defeat. It is not clear that there are many Republican leaders who will demand that those who allege fraud “step-down”. The irony is that these allegations may well be made if and even after Republicans succeed in gaining control of one or more of Houses of Congress.
The nastiness of numerous campaigns in 2022 following on the heels of 2020 may well be only a harbinger of the challenges that the nation will face in 2024, especially if Trump indeed is the GOP nominee or if he runs as a third party. What American democracy has experienced over the past six years may well only be a preview of what is to come in the forthcoming presidential campaign season.
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Footnote to Election 2022
One of the remarkable silver linings in this most ugly off-year election cycle is that in the Southern state of Georgia the Democratic and Republican candidates for the Senate are both African Americans as well as the Democratic candidate for governor. This fact should not be lost on anyone. Georgia is not California or New York but it is the South. Without any specific judgement about the individuals, both major political parties--and their rank and file in Georgia--are making an important statement to the country in nominating African Americans.
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Since everyone else is doing it, here goes---It seems likely that the D’s will hold the Senate and might even gain a seat while the R’s will take the House. Regardless, it will be a long night.
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