When Administrations change in Washington there invariably are shifts in policy directions. Traditionally these are gradual, understandable, and not radical. This is especially true in the field of foreign policy where generally changes in directions for a new government are incremental and not dramatic. It is in this context that one must consider the challenge faced by the new Biden Administration in how it is seeking to reset U.S. foreign policy.
The four years of Donald Trump moved the relatively steady compass of American international relations to a radically different level. Trump was determined to break, undermine, or invalidate any and all policies which he inherited from the Obama Administration or even some that had been the cornerstones of U.S. foreign policy for generations. Friendships with America’s European allies were undermined; overtures to North Korea were generated without any pre-conditions or preparation; policy towards Russia was turned totally on its head based on no rationale other than personal instinct; trade relations with China were so strained that they seriously impacted major sectors of the American economy; U.S. Middle East policy was based solely on economic and political interests with very few exceptions; and U.S. immigration policy especially regarding Muslims and Latinos were discriminatory and irrational.
As a result, having focused his first two months almost exclusively on mobilizing the virus vaccination program and economic recovery/rescue, President Biden. appears now to be engaged in a wide array of global issues all at once; only some of which are of his own doing. Students of the Presidency appreciate the fact that it is foreign policy matters where most presidents spend a disproportionate amount of their time, but usually not all at once.
Biden began last week endeavoring to find a way to re-engage the U.S. in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or P5+1) Iran nuclear deal, completed by President Obama and abrogated by President Trump. As Biden was seeking to maintain some of Trump’s sanctions while lifting others, an attack occurred in Natanz, Iran’s major nuclear facility, which the international community has assumed was conducted by Israeli sabotage. As the JCPOA indirect negotiations proceed in Vienna, the Biden Administration must add another variable to the calculus. Iran announced that it will begin immediately to raise the percent of uranium enrichment from 20% to 60% purity, only 30% less than is needed for weapons grade.
At the beginning of this week, President Biden proclaimed his intention to withdraw the remaining 2500 U.S. military forces in Afghanistan on September 11, 2021, the twentieth anniversary of the attack on the U.S. This signals the potential of a renewed confrontation between the Afghani Government and the radical Islamic Taliban forces. It also could evolve into the revival of the Al Qaeda forces as well as aggressive activities from neighboring Pakistan. All of these moves pose a threat as well to India.
On Wednesday, President Biden announced that he was re-imposing economic sanctions on Russia and expelling ten Russian diplomats (reputed to be intelligence operatives). The President accused Russia of intelligence hacking against the American government, American corporations, and interfering in the 2020 election. He also expressed his displeasure with Russia’s continuing build-up of sophisticated, advanced forces on the Ukrainian border.
In conjunction with the concern the President expressed about Ukraine, he announced the cancellation of the withdrawal of 12,000 U.S. troops from Europe which the Trump Administration had approved as well as the immediate dispatching of an additional 500 troops to Germany. At the same time, Biden indicated that when he informed President Vladimir Putin of this decision, he also indicated he hoped that it would be possible for the two leaders to meet this summer.
In the Middle East, Biden suggested that the Administration was proceeding with some of the weapons’ sales to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States—including many which were outgrowths of the Abraham Accords. The President also indicated that he was re-considering the offensive weapons sales that had been designated by the Trump Administration until his team had made a clearer determination as to the status of hostilities in Yemen as well as Iranian aggression in the Persian Gulf.
While this represents one week’s activities on the international scene, many of these moves--as well as other points of potential conflict--are likely to simmer for some time. President Biden is now getting into the nitty-gritty of foreign policy. After almost 100 days, Biden met today with his first global leader from Japan. It will continue to take time to undo and reset U.S. global policy. Part of President Biden’s success could well depend on whether he can gain bi-partisan support for his international agenda, independently from his domestic program.
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