President Vladimir Putin probably has 10-14 days to successfully take over Ukraine and remove the Zelenskyy Government from power or he will begin suffering serious pushbacks at home. The Russian people certainly and even some of his biggest political and economic supporters will start to pressure the Kremlin to develop an exit strategy or demand a compromise. The Russian military, absent resorting to heavy duty weapons or tactical nukes, will also begin to resist this pointless invasion. If the Russian invasion succeeds, there will be a major reckoning which the West will face as it contemplates what Putin will do next.
Four days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine a number of things are already clear, and several revelations are apparent. For President Vladimir Putin and as well as for President Joe Biden and the West these are some of the observations:
1. President Putin’s behavior has confirmed what many have suspected that his ultimate goal is to resurrect the old Soviet Union.
2. Putin believes that the West is too weak and disunited to stand in his way, as he views taking over Ukraine as only his first move.
3. Putin tried the Nazi strategy of appeasement and has been surprised that it has not worked. To date Ukraine, the Government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy,as well as the Ukrainian people are far more willing to resist the Russian invasions than Putin and even many analysts in the West expected. The resistance of the Ukrainian people and the military, to date, has been very impressive.
4. U.S. intelligence appears to have been totally on the mark and ahead of the game. Biden made his decisions to maximize his diplomatic options, knowing that the Russian strategy of invasion was already in place. This approach also informed Putin—or at least his intelligence advisers--that the U.S. was ahead in the intelligence game.
5. Many in the West are genuinely concerned about Putin’s mental stability. He may well have a game plan but if he fails to achieve it, to what excesses might he be prepared to opt?
6. Is there any reason to assume that —if the battle for Ukraine is a protracted one—Putin might face a political threat from within his inner circle and/or will the Russian people accept a dragged-out fight with Ukraine producing wide-ranging Russian casualties?
The problem is the unknowns.
1. If Putin eventually succeeds in capturing Ukraine, will he turn his attentions first to the Balkans or to Poland?
2. Is Putin prepared to challenge the Western alliance to see if NATO will invoke Article 5 of the NATO pact calling for “collective defense” to support any member that is attacked?
3. Would Putin’s test of Western unity include the possibility of introducing tactical nuclear weapons into the discussion and what might be a Western response to this threat?
4. How long will the Russian people accept the economic pressure and suffering? This is not a replay of Napoleon’s 1812 invasion of Russia or Hitler’s attack in 1941. In both of those cases the Russian people rallied to defend the “Motherland”.
The Russian people are being called upon to endure hardships which have been created by a megalomaniacal leader. Gorbachev let the communist genie out of the bottle and the Russian people have tasted a more open, although not yet democratic, regime. They have pressured for more democratic reform, not more KGB tactics from a former security operative. The Russian people today remain informed as to what is really transpiring in Ukraine through their access and familiarity with social media. They recognize the propaganda that is awash in the State controlled media.
Finally, there is an unparalleled response in the U.S. to the events occurring in Europe. The strategy of the Biden Administration and its coordinated effort with the United States’ allies is evoking less than universal support at home. The extent to which President Biden has been personally attacked as well as his leadership in the midst of an erupting global confrontation is unprecedented. Not only the former President but leading Members of Congress have made a loathsome political debate in the midst of this global crisis.
The failure of the Republican Party and its leadership to unify behind the U.S. Government underscores how low the functionality of the American democracy has sunk. Regardless of how this crisis is resolved, the American people and its political leaders ought to question the extent to which American democracy is viable if political actors are determined to turn even a global crisis into a partisan mud-slinging contest.
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