Sometimes a negotiator ought to disappear from the negotiations to allow for matters to germinate and evolve with out him. President Biden’s departure for Europe may be precisely what the infrastructure negotiations needed. The President had been so desirous of getting a bi-partisan infrastructure deal that unlike, President Obama, he has been working on this bill from the beginning. Obama waited until the 11th hour on numerous negotiations with Congress and then would jump in, only to come away empty handed. Biden sought to get into the discussion early and avoid that fate, but he too is not fairing too well.
While hardly analogous in the severity or the dangers of 1962, President John F. Kennedy went to Chicago for some campaign appearances in the midst of the highly secret White House negotiations of the Ex-Com over the looming Cuban Missile Crisis. After allowing the committee meet in his absence, he then developed a diplomatic cold and returned to Washington early having been appraised that the discussions had produced precisely what he desired; a wide range of policy options which the committee had been reluctant to wrestle with in his presence.
Biden, having failed to conclude a viable infrastructure package with Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito, broke off further discussions with the Republicans in the Senate. Curiously, the President concluded his negotiations precisely at the moment it was announced that a bi-partisan group of Senators was meeting in the Senate basement to see if they could develop their own bi-partisan proposal.
Ironically, this is precisely the way legislation used to be crafted. The House would develop its bill and the Senate its version, all under the watchful eye of the White House. Signals would be sent to Members of the president’s party where his red lines were in the bill. When a House-Senate conference committee was eventually convened, the President would have his legislative advisers participate in the process as the final compromise bill was developed. By the time the conference committee bill and reports emerged, it was generally ready for passage by both Houses. At this point, only if the talks were not moving towards a resolution would the President call the Members to the White House. This is a process in which President Biden participated on numerous occasions during his 36 years in the Senate.
As Biden left for Europe the bi-partisan Senate infrastructure negotiators began to move ahead. Even if they do produce a bill that will pass the Senate, it will need to return to the House whose version of the bill is much larger than the one being discussed in the Senate. The President may then have more trouble with Democrats than Republicans.
The President will need to guarantee to the progressive wing of his party that he will send back to Congress those components of his original infrastructure bill that have been dropped in the name of bipartisanship. Specifically, the tax bill could be moved through the Senate under the Senate provision of reconciliation which will deny the Republicans the ability to filibuster that bill and would only require 50 votes plus the Vice-President’s. With respect to the reconciliation effort, many analysts are not sure that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer even can guarantee that all 50 Democratic Senators will approve tax increases.
Meanwhile, there are several other critical fiscal responsibilities which Congress must address. The appropriations bills for fiscal year 2022 need to be in place by the end of September. In addition, the Treasury has advised President Biden to seek a raise in the national debt ceiling by the end of July in order to avoid a possible borrowing crisis or even a government shutdown. These issues alone suggest that with the best of intentions and cooperation, it could well be fall before the infrastructure bill and a revenue bill are enacted, as Congress has approximately five weeks of summer vacation on their calendar after the end of June.
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Footnote
Joe Biden’s first major, in-person, venture onto the international stage as President will expose him to many watchful eyes beyond any of the substantive discussions which he will have in London, at the G-7, and with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva. Biden is certainly going to be scrutinized for how well he functions physically for so many hours in public. The media and the entire world will be watching for the traditional Biden history of slip-ups, mis-speaks, and the like. More importantly, however, there will a very critical eye cast on how well the 78-year-old president manages being in the spotlight for so many days. This will be especially true during the informal conversations he will have with foreign leaders, which is where the critical work is addressed.
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