Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s decision to fire Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is perhaps the best proof yet that the Prime Minister will not tolerate dissent from within his own Likud Party’s ranks. Gallant had been persuaded on Thursday by Bibi, apparently, to postpone his public remarks challenging the judicial reform proposal, prior to the Prime Minister’s departure to England. In fact Netanyahu arrived home, met with Gallant, and then fired him following Gallant’s public challenge to the Government’s position on judicial reform. Just as Bibi had demonstrated defiance in his speech on Thursday evening, so too now did he reiterate that he had no intention to compromise on the Government’s position regardless of how energized his opponents became.
Lest Netanyahu assumed things were only rough for him at home, the reception he received from Anglo Jewry and Israeli ex-pats in London, did not appear to move him. The huge turnout on the streets of Israel on Saturday night persisted, while Netanyahu is determined to complete action on the judicial reform package before the Knesset adjourns for the Passover recess.
Gallant’s statement and firing does signify that there are some rumblings, even in public, among members of his coalition. It needs, however, to be understood that the way the Israeli political system operates, when a Minister or a Knesset member resigns, defects, dies, etc., that individual is automatically replaced by someone else from the governing coalition or by the next member on the party’s list, thus never affecting the size of the coalition’s majority. It would require an entire party to bolt from the coalition to threaten its sustainability to govern; something that does not yet appear to be imminent.
The dimension of Netanyahu’s problems continues to grow among Israelis; with Israel’s global friends; among the military reservists and enlisted soldiers; within the economic sector; and among Diaspora Jewry. What is remarkable is the persistence of the protests and its growing proliferation. Even among the ultra-Orthodox (charedi) sector, which is part of the coalition, there was a remarkable shift last week during Thursday’s demonstration in the Charedi section of B’nai Brak. Whereas when demonstrators had marched during the previous week through this town they were pelted with eggs, this week they were greeted with water, food, and even cholent being prepared for the forthcoming Sabbath. This was interpreted that even among some of Bibi’s most religious supporters, they too understand the seriousness of the growing divide in the country.
Netanyahu’s tour of European capitals—London, Paris, Berlin, and Rome—has been less than a major success. Except in Italy, Prime Minister Netanyahu has been greeted with various degrees of tepidness. Throughout his visits he has consistently been met by protesting Jewish groups as well. In addition, Netanyahu has been forced to recognize that the traditional visit to the U.S. for a new Prime Minister has been consciously postponed by the Biden Administration. This generally is being interpreted as a clear indication of Washington’s displeasure with the undemocratic character of Netanyahu’s judicial reform package.
Other than the apparent freezing up of some foreign investment sectors and the beginning drift abroad of “start-ups”, the most dangerous signal that the coalition is receiving comes from a growing resistance within the military. Not only are some reservists balking at reporting for duty, but enlisted soldiers are doing so as well; including even some air force pilots. While this is occurring during a period of very limited military activity, the IDF historically has functioned well because of its continuous training schedule. The absence of some members to reporting for their duties suggests that the military could be setting itself up so that some operating units may not be prepared should a crisis occur.
In addition and perhaps even more dangerous, is that the operation of an Israeli military which is less than totally focused on its mission, is being noted by Israel’s adversaries. Whether it is Iran or Syria on the one hand, or Hezbollah, or Hamas or some of the other terrorists’ groups on the other hand, all are totally cognizant of how the events playing out in Israel are and might influence their cause, the status of the Palestinians, as well as the future of the Abraham Accords.
While the first Friday prayers during Ramadan passed without incidents, the Muslim holy month will overlap shortly with the Jewish holiday of Passover and Christian Holy Week. This period which is always one of stress among the various faiths in Israel and especially in Jerusalem, will be intensified given the current political unrest. In addition, in the weeks immediately following Passover, Israel will memorialize the memory of the Holocaust on Yom HaShoa followed a week later by Yom HaAtzmaut, the 75th anniversary of Israel’s independence. The forthcoming calendar, therefore, is also a major factor for Israel as well.
Netanyahu’s continued approach to his situation of everyone “be damned” continues to alienate more and more people in more and more circles. The telling moment may well occur if and when the Supreme Court overrules the judicial reform enacted by the Government. That could be the moment that many fear could produce a violent confrontation.
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