Virus Politics
The coronavirus epidemic has created an array of political and international problems besides the effects of the virus itself. Great Britain is now, ironically, patting itself on the back even more than ever for leaving the European Union. Unlike the countries in the EU, Britain appears effectively to be vaccinating at very high rate and preparing to emerge from its third lock-down for Easter Holy Week. Meanwhile, the European continent is in a state of vaccine confusion. There is disruption over delivery; over countries’ satisfaction with the testing and efficacy of the Astra-Zeneca vaccine; and a sense of discrimination over the vaccine’s dissemination. In addition, concerns about the A-Z vaccine—which has been since largely alleviated—have heightened the level of risk adversity within the continental countries. England, meanwhile, is proceeding on its way and increasing the vaccination of its population, albeit that Britain did endure three lockdowns.
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U.S. Addresses Russia and China
President Biden has clearly sought to reset U.S.-Russia relations from the “best buds” style that President Trump had created with President Vladimir Putin. Biden did get aggressive in his language toward the Kremlin concerning election obstruction as well as on economic issues. The two leaders have yet to face-off on military security matters but that no doubt will develop either over Iran, Afghanistan, or in Central Europe. Much of this jousting around will calm down or be addressed in bi-lateral conversations when the leaders meet in Rome at the G-20 meeting in October.
Relations with China have not moved significantly off the track that they were on under Trump. The atmospherics, however, which emerged after Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent meeting in Alaska appeared to have had less tense spin-out from their private conversations than in the more public ones. There appears to be considerable discussion about cybersecurity issues, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. It was not clear how vigorously Blinken’s pushed on human rights abuses nor what was the Chinese response. It was difficult to ascertain immediately whether there were significant shifts in their mutual positions on the trade stand-off. Biden no doubt will also have a chance to take his own measure of President Xi-Jinping next fall as well.
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Israeli Electioneering
Israelis go to vote tomorrow for the fourth time in two years. According to the final polls, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is tied with Yair Lapid to obtain the most seats in the next Knesset. During the previous elections, it became evident that the election polls were becoming less and less reliable. This was due partly because Israelis have become more and more polls (or pollster) averse.
At present many suggest that Bibi’s time is up, and he could very well go down with one of the other voices on the right emerging to champion the right. At the same time, it has been suggested that much of Netanyahu’s support comes not only from Likud supporters but from various other segments on the center right. It is the non-Likudniks who at the end of the day fear change.
Critical for Bibi as well will be whether he indeed has made any inroads among Israeli Arabs whom he has courted very heavily. It remains to be seen if they will vote for him rather than for the Arab parties. Similarly, will decisions reached by the charedim move them to opt for Netanyahu as a better protection for their self-interests or will they continue to vote for the ultra-Orthodox parties. Finally, there is the unknown factor as well as to what effect Covid-19 has had on voters’ hopes and desires.
As for who would emerge from the scramble both on the center left as well as on the right, the polls also appear equally indecisive. One thing is clear, there could well be a fifth election.
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