The Democrats are now in control of the House, the Senate, and the White House for the first time since 2009. It was during these first years of President Obama that Congress succeeded in passing the economic recovery package following the 2008 recession as well as the Affordable Healthcare Act. In the 2010 election the Dems lost control of the House and for President Obama’s final two years in office, beginning in 2015, the Republicans gained power in both Chambers, which they continued to control during the past four years of the Trump Administration.
It is the rise of the progressive arm of the Democratic Congressional Party which may wreak havoc for President Biden and the Dems in their current legislative struggle. If they persist in fighting for their program, it will guarantee that the Democrats will lose control of Congress in the 2022 mid-term election. Most of the agenda supported by the progressive wing is legitimate and ought to be passed, but Joe Biden’s politics has always been based on the classic political scientist’s definition that politics is the “art of the possible.”
President Biden wants to govern—leaning left of center. He knows he must build coalitions and play carrot and stick with the Republicans, especially in the Senate. Biden recognizes that he will need to throw in the towel on Neera Tanden’s nomination to be OMB Director in order to hopefully sustain support for most of his other Cabinet nominees.
The President clearly supports the $15/hour minimum wage but not by challenging the folkways of the Senate where Biden earned his stripes. The President must phase in the $15 wage over more time or juggle with its conditions. He may not agree that it is right to reduce the wage goal, but it he might get a bill passed. At the same time, Biden might also obtain some votes on the COVID-relief package. Similarly, in order to pass immigration reform or an infrastructure package or the elimination of voter suppression the Administration will need to negotiate for Republican support.
A more subtle example is with respect to fixing the ACA. Beginning in 2011 when the Democrats lost control of the House, a traditional congressional debate never ensued to fix some of the mistakes in Obamacare. Every major innovative legislation presents challenges to legislators who, upon reflection after passage, spend their time improving the law. Obamacare was no different.
Rather than proceeding to modify the ACA, the Republicans spent the last ten years trying to gut and dismantle many of its provisions. The Democrats can now find ways to improve Obamacare, or they can try to reach for the stars which the progressives are demanding. There might be votes to fix the ACA but there certainly is not sufficient support for “Medicare For All” or anything resembling it. The President recognizes the conundrum he is facing but he understands how to proceed. It is not yet clear if his own party will undermine his efforts.
President Biden does not need to gain the support of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell first, but rather he needs to pick off some low hanging Senators; maybe even some of those who are retiring or are not standing for re-election in 2022. Biden knows how to manage a political challenge and to then share the credit; even making the Minority Leader look big-hearted and benevolent. Things will not end well for the Dems if Biden cannot keep his party in line. If he fails, they will march themselves back into the wilderness in 2022.
The problem is not solely a Democratic one. After the circus this weekend at the CPAC conference, realistic Republicans need to recognize that Donald Trump is likely to confront legal battles for years to come. He can use all his bluster, but it will never successfully lead the GOP to the next round. Perhaps a more centrist group or at least a rational conservative Republicans can challenge the Trump mystique. They have a chance now as they consider the 2022 and 2024 elections. Republicans cannot return to normalcy—as Biden is trying to do with the Democrats—however, if they believe that they ought to follow Senators Ted Cruz or Josh Hawley or Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), Matt Gaetz (R-FL), Paul Gosar (R-AR) or Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) to the political promised land.
Comentários