Watching President Joe Biden’s speeches and activities in France on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the D-Day invasion left one shuddering, as one recalled former President Donald Trump’s performance in 2019. In observing those events, together with the G-7 meeting in Italy, ought to drive the American people to consider in whose hands the Western alliance would be better off in 2025.
Despite whatever perceived conversational lapses which might have been detected as Americans observed President Biden’s interactions with America’s friends and allies, there was dramatic fear if the American voters re-elect Donald Trump in November. The graphics and videos—even without the substance—should have been enough for Americans to recognize the consequences for the West if Trump were to replace Biden. The viability of the Western alliance and assurances for the future of the free world could well be at stake.
The President’s visit presented a ceremonial and historical picture of what happened when the United States joined our European Allies to defeat the Nazis in World War II. Beyond the personal competition and rivalries among many of the leaders—civilian and military—who joined forces in that war, one sensed the abiding connection which today’s leaders had for an America led by Joe Biden. The strength of democracy was underscored in the Allied victory and by the nations participating in the memorial.
(It was particularly noticeable with the presence of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz—whose country killed hundreds of thousands of allied soldiers--and the absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin--whose nation lost 8-10 million soldiers fighting the Nazis—as well as the special attention extended to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. It spoke legions about where the North American Alliance is today. It also made America’s allies contemplate what this united front—or its absence--might appear like should Donald Trump be re-elected.)
Perhaps even more dramatic than the events at Normandy, the President’s visit to France as well as the G-7 meeting, were the results of the European Parliamentary elections. The widespread victories of far-right parties present a serious potential danger to the Western Alliance, especially if America were to be led once again by Donald Trump. European countries may be challenged internally by the consequences of this election, but the real problem will be in their future relationship with the United States if a Trump Administration moves back into the White House.
At the same time these European Parliamentary elections must not be taken lightly, as they represent certain world-wide right-wing trends which have been growing and manifested for some time. While Poland might have shifted away from the right in last fall’s election, the trend that had begun in Hungary and Italy, was now being followed elsewhere. In addition, the world’s largest democracy, India, indicated its dissatisfaction with the right-wing led coalition of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in its recent national election. While Modi and his BJP Party will continue to lead India, the Indian Nation Congress Party, of Ghandi and Nehru, made a sufficiently strong comeback for Modi to feel political pressure for the first time from the left.
The dramatic right-wing statement made by the French electorate in EU elections so disrupted President Emmanuel Macron that he has called for French Parliamentary elections at the end of June and the middle of July. He hopes to retrieve some standing among the French people, immediately prior to the beginning of the Summer Olympics in Paris, and following their clear support for the right in the EU elections.
In Germany, the AfD neo-fascist party also fared better than expected. It gained four or five seats, giving them 15 seats within the 96 seat German EU delegation. For Prime Minister Scholz, who already has been governing with a tenuous coalition, the increase in German support for the right portends a possible further threat to his own Government’s stability.
Finally, with the British snap-election scheduled for July 4th, Nigel Farage, the leader of Britain’s own far-right extremist Reform UK Party, has himself decided to stand for a seat in the new Parliament. While polls—which in Great Britain are historically unreliable-- suggest that the Labour Party is an overwhelming favorite to win control of the next Parliament, Farage’s presence in the new Parliament will undoubtedly create a distraction for Labour. As Keir Starmer will try to steer the country ahead with the departure of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party after 14 years in office, the same polls now suggest that the Reform UK Party might obtain even more seats than the Tories in the election.
These tumultuous events on the political stage in the West confirm analysts’ deep concern for the stability of the Western alliance. The instability in Europe, however, is also manifested in the U.S. with the virtual take-over of the Republican Party by the growing, isolationist right-wing as well as the increasingly influential progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
There is a clear difference, however, between the two respective party leaders. Former President Trump is encouraging this extremist GOP wing while President Biden appears determined to keep the Dems closer to the traditional center. It is these two ideological directions which also are threatening future global stability.
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