The advent of a New Year is generally a time for reflection on the past and, particularly, endeavoring to dismiss the sadder time of the departing year. It is a time of anticipation and joy. No more dwelling on what went wrong. Approach the New Year with positive expectations that whatever disappointments one experienced in this past year will be replaced by exciting, positive events. As one contemplates the arrival of 2024, however, there is so much anxiety in the air that contemplating the forthcoming New Year is, at best, reserved.
Perhaps the most menacing event to contemplate is the November 2024 elections. It is not the elections themselves which have consumed so much print and email since Christmas, but the fear of what the results might be. Except for requests for charitable gift giving before year’s end, the number of bleak predictions for the forthcoming year are scary. People appear to be genuinely worried as to how far politics in the United States and throughout the world can descend.
The war in Ukraine and in Gaza draw the most concern. The destruction occurring in Ukraine and the persistent pounding that it is receiving from Russia is not abating. Regardless of how much military equipment the West supplies to Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has demonstrated little interest in ending the conflict, except with a Russian victory. At this point it appears that Putin is willing to permit the war to continue until he wears down Ukraine, however long it will take.
Failure to stop this Russian aggression can only produce greater instability for Central Europe and for the West. While there may be no immediate threats facing Poland, both it and many of Ukraine’s surrounding neighbors sense an immediate potential danger should Ukraine fail to withstand the Russian invasion. Ultimately, it is Germany which would be the country that would present the most serious concern for the West and would precipitate an immediate, major NATO response.
Clearly Putin suspects, probably correctly, that if former President Donald Trump were to be re-elected next fall, Russia will face a much more compliant and friendly leadership in Washington. In his first term, Trump evidenced an obsequious, non-adversarial role from the U.S. in its dealings with Russia. Putin’s strategy is comparable to Hitler’s exploitation of the appeasement policies adopted by France and Britain toward Germany in the 1930’s. He will wait out one more year of Biden and then hope to have a Trump Administration which will tolerate Russian aggression and non-U.S. involvement in Russian expansionism.
In a similar way, China will also maintain a threatening posture towards Taiwan as well as in the South China Sea, but it too will likely await the American election. Like Putin, President Xi Jinping of China will also adopt a waiting game. As has historically been the Chinese way and as is doctrinaire in their Communist ideology, what is inevitable—a Chinese victory—does not need to be forced quickly if there are signs that their goals are likely to be achieved.
A cessation of hostilities in Gaza must be achieved within weeks, but the potential for a war in Lebanon still appears likely. If Israel does not neutralize the threat posed by Hezbollah, a potential, much more damaging conflict in South Lebanon could be looming in the region. America’s role and President Biden’s ability to prevent a second, potentially far more serious conflict, may well be the true Middle East challenge of 2024.
Ultimately so much of these concerns come down to whether political leadership in the United States will refocus itself on the need to maintain liberal democracy as the country seeks to address its domestic problems as well as sustaining its role as the key global power. Much of this will be decided not only by the presidential election next fall, but by the make-up of the new Congress which will come into office in January 2025. A Trump victory will be a threat to continued democratic rule in the United States. At this point, as is likely to be demonstrated when the current Congress returns next week, there appear to be very few Republican Members who are genuinely interested in governing. The depth of vicious attacks sadly is likely to intensify as political lines are drawn more tightly with minimal legislative achievements.
To paraphrase a very recent comment: Staying up on New Year’s Eve is usually done to welcome in the New Year. Perhaps, while one may well want to see this difficult year pass, it is not at all clear how optimistic one can be about what the next year will bring.
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