There appears to be a possibility or even a probability of a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas coupled with a partial deal between the parties on the release of some of the hostages captured by Hamas on October 7th in return for some of the prisoners held in Israeli jails. This would represent a first step towards some type of possibility, sooner rather than later, of the cessation of hostilities between Hamas and Israel. It will require further action to gain the release of the remaining hostages as well as insurance that the skirmishes which have continued between Israel and Hezbollah in the North will not now escalate. No one should assume that any of the parties are prepared to follow this script, but if indeed there is a significant group of hostages released, it could pave the way to significantly reduce the active war and improve the chances for further hostage releases plus reduction in fighting and death for both Israelis and Palestinians.
On the Israeli side both internally and externally there are numerous matters regarding the political/military situation which Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu must address. These issues must be faced by Israel as it determines how to conclude hostilities, what it wants or needs in a post-war Gaza, and how to move to de-escalation and permanent cease-fire. There is no reasonable way, at this point, for Israel continue its military campaign in South Gaza as the IDF did in in the North.
Globally, Israel—rightly or wrongly—has suffered tremendously in international circles and among many of its allies. Almost all the Governments with strong long-standing relations with Israel, have remained steadfast in their support for Israel’s need to respond to the horrific Hamas attacks on October 7. It is the publics in many of these countries which have demonstrated significant support for the Palestinian cause, despite the fact that Hamas was the attacker to which Israel responded.
Israel is awaiting action by the U.S. Congress to President Biden’s request of supplemental military assistance of over $14 billion. The White House can push just so hard for passage. Biden faces the need to hold his own party sufficiently in line as he and many of the Members are facing election next November.
At the same time, Israel needs to recognize that the American military-industrial complex loves doing business with Israel. The Israeli Government, however, needs to be more politically sensitive to the fact that for many Americans, Israel may be justified in its military cause, but is conducting the war in Gaza largely on the backs of the largesse of American taxpayers.
Domestically, Netanyahu is facing an intensifying confrontation from all directions while his own political future facing numerous challenges. His coalition partners are making demands and conducting affairs of their ministries which are almost as dangerous for Bibi’s political future as are those of his opposition. It is many of their actions which underscore why the national political upheaval in Israel will continue to intensify until the Prime Minister accepts responsibility for his Government’s failures and/or he is defeated either by a no-confidence vote in the Knesset or in an election.
Netanyahu appears to be condoning actions from some of the Members of his coalition which are only alienating further U.S. and the West’s support. There continues to be growing unrest on the West Bank—some of which is being precipitated by Israeli settlers—which could potentially become more widespread. Netanyahu has failed to insist that Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich cease to withhold tax revenues which Israel regularly has collected for the Palestinian Authority and then turned over to them. These funds are needed for, among other things, supporting the Palestinian police force on the West Bank which works closely with the Israeli border police.
Similarly, as Israel is engaged in trying to gain the release of hostages held by Hamas terrorists and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir of the extremist Otzma Yehudit Party has chosen this moment to seek Knesset enactment of legislation to provide for a possible death penalty for convicted terrorists. This action is infuriating the families of the hostages as they want to lower the temperature to facilitate the release of the hostages. As is the case with respect to withholding funds from the PA, Prime Minister Netanyahu has done nothing to marginalize either Ben-Gvir or Smotrich’s initiatives.
It is presumably supporters of the extreme right-wing element of the Netanyahu Government, who represent the major portion the 30% of Israelis in a reported poll who are advocating Israeli resettlement of Gaza at the conclusion of the war. Here again, Netanyahu is unwilling to address this pipedream of some of his supporters for fear of undermining any Knesset support.
Netanyahu must complete the prosecution of the Gaza War, but he probably has only a small window left before his international support will demand an end to the fighting. The Israeli public is clamoring for the return of the hostages. When their return is resolved, Bibi needs to understand that his political future is bleak if non-existent. In addition, his legal battles will occupy all his energy, something he refuses to face.
Shaping the future of Gaza and its eventual rebuilding as well as security arrangements will take years. Addressing these issues is the first priority. Given the radical character of the terrorists, Hamas’ unwillingness to recognize Israel’s legitimate right to exist, and the hatred that persists, designing a future for Gaza is daunting.
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