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KAHNTENTIONS

KAHNTENTIONS is a blog post written by Gilbert N. Kahn, Professor of Political Science at Kean University in Union, New Jersey. Beginning in 2011 KAHNTENTIONS was hosted by the New Jersey Jewish News which recently ceased written publication. KAHNTENTIONS presents an open and intellectually honest analysis of issues facing the United States, Israel, as well as Jews world-wide.

BY GILBERT N. KAHN

"These are the times that try men's souls."

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How Not to Leave


The events occurring hour by hour in Afghanistan are tragic yet were predictable. President Biden made the correct decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, but the execution of his decision appears to have been totally botched, regardless of how the White House now will seek to spin it.


Biden’s decisions were strategically in the U.S.’s interests but it appears that the U.S. military still has not learned how to evacuate when a battle is lost. The President acted where none of his predecessors—of both parties--were willing to go. It demonstrated that Biden does have genuine foreign policy experience on which to base his ability to govern; more so than all his predecessors since President Bush I. President Biden has a longer and larger geo-political view; but he faces enormous political criticism for this decision, because of the apparent failure to exit effectively. Hopefully, the U.S. military and diplomatic personnel all will be safely evacuated but that is by no means clear.


It is evident that President Biden never should have announced a deadline for the formal withdrawal except in general terms. U.S.-Afghani intelligence was totally off-target in terms of the rapidity with which the county would fall to Taliban control. They misjudged the speed with which the Taliban forces were ready to move and they were fixated on Biden’s announced 9/11 departure date.


Despite U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and others’ efforts to repudiate it, the analogy with America’s exit from Viet-Nam in 1975 is obvious. Americans still recall helicopters departing from the roof of the U.S. Embassy with people hanging on for dear life. The report of the departure of Afghani President Ashraf Ghani, who—together with his Government the U.S. has for years sought to prop up—is a stark recollection of President Thiệu’s evacuation from Saigon before all U.S. personnel were even out of the country.


It appears the military lost far more materiel and supplies than was necessary because of the disorganized withdrawal. American forces should have been prepared for the eventual Taliban push. Clearly, the U.S. command did not calculate how fast the Afghani military would capitulate and how quickly the Government would collapse. Until the end, the level of corruption and financial deal-making among groups of Afghanis was widespread. The ugly attacks and ensuing bloodbath being pursued by the Taliban against insufficiently devout Afghanis, especially the violence being perpetrated against women, is frightening.


For U.S. decision-makers the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban poses a number of issues that had been ever-present. For many in the military and intelligence community, addressing future terrorist activities was always an issue. With Taliban control the increased use of Afghanistan by Al-Qaeda, among others, as a base for terrorist operations is now greatly enhanced. Ironically, it could also give the U.S. anti-terrorist operatives a less constrained time maneuvering in a country no-longer controlled by an American ally. Assuming at least some U.S. local contacts have remained, the rules of engagement to infiltrate the Taliban and even Al-Qaeda might be easier.


At the same time, the dramatic number of refugees escaping from Afghanistan to Iran are not all humanitarian cases. Presumably, U.S. intelligence will be able to exploit both exiting Afghanis and in-country Iranians to augment existing Western intelligence sources in Iran. In addition, it will not be easy for the Iranian Government to gain international support on the humanitarian side for the refugee influx—neither from the West nor from the affluent Islamic regimes--unless the new Iranian Government packages its request with a shift in its continuing hostile policy in the Persian Gulf.


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