Into the Unknown

The demise of Syrian President Bashaar al-Assad and his corrupt dictatorship adds an additional element of regional political drama and instability to a region which already has endured widespread brutality, violence, and despair for over fourteen months. Ultimately, the dramatic takeover of the Syrian Government by an organization of terrorists and hardened bandits may well bring all the hostile parties, their surrogates, their allies, and their opponents to move to resolve many of the immediate conflicts which have inflamed and engulfed the region. In the meantime, however, no one has a firm sense about what sort of new government the Syrian guerrillas will form.

While some of the consequences of last week’s Syrian upheaval may be transitory, the toppling of the Assad regime may well initiate a new set of regional relationships as well as global shifts. To be clear, nothing permanent will be recognizable for some time; but there are reasons to project that the developments in Syria will provide the impetus for an actual reset of numerous regimes and alliances in the Middle East.

During this past year of confrontation between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, the Assad regime has been the geographical link between all of Israel’s adversaries. Syria was the locus of most of the military traffic for all the elements of the Iranian arc. Iranian and Russian supplies, training, and personnel were dispatched through Syria. It was the tight-fisted control that President Assad maintained over his country that enabled this conduit to grow and be sustained. It was a training ground and supply base for many of the terrorist groups moving through the region.

The surprise take-over demonstrated once again in a very curious manner how throughout its numerous encounters with Israel, Syria’s own military was inept, ill-prepared, and toothless, when confronted with a military challenge. The fact that once the Syrian rebel forces chose their moment to proceed, it took less than two weeks to remove the Assad regime. It was also evident that Syria had no genuine “allies” prepared to buttress and secure President Assad. It remains to be seen how radical and dangerous the new Syria will be once a government is in place.

What had remained of Russian trainers, aircraft, and ships have disappeared. Iran has shut the pipeline down. Hezbollah is already on life-support, and Israeli forces on land and in the air are ensuring that what remains of the Syrian military as well as its storage of chemical and biological weapons will not present a threat to Israel on the Golan Heights and in Northern Israel. Israel has even seized the Syrian high mountain top on the Hermon.  

In a normal, non-Netanyahu, political world, Israel would be able to make deals with adversaries, allies, and potential regional partners. The ceasefire with Hezbollah is holding so far with this terrorist group majorly degraded. Hamas appears much more ready to move forward on a hostage release-ceasefire, and Israel likely will withdraw rapidly from Syria once UNIFIL is reinstated and functional on the border.

Russia can make noise and protest, but the Putin Government is totally bogged down in Ukraine and does not appear to be interested in any alternative engagement. The withdrawal of the Russian navy from its Syrian ports to offshore, warm water positions certainly indicates that the Kremlin is not interested in any exposure for its overly taxed military.

The Iranian regime is already in the midst of a major strategic reassessment. It needs to decide how far to proceed with its nuclear program. This is following Israel’s rapid crushing of Iran’s Hezbollah proxies as well as Israel’s tactical offensive signals to Teheran not to presume Israel is incapable or unwilling to invoke serious damage to Iran.  Given Iran’s economic problems as well as growing public unrest, the Supreme Leader may well be getting skittish as to how far to push further confrontations with Israel.

All of which leaves the region as well as the Biden Administration weighing how and what buttons it can and should push in its final 40 days in power. There is a genuine sense that Washington would like to bring the Gaza War to a close before President Biden leaves office. At the end of the day, it may well depend on whether Hamas believes it has the best deal now that it will get. It will also depend on whether Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu wants to end matters and give Biden credit. He also needs to calculate whether he can bring his own extremist coalition to accept an imperfect deal.

Given the totally unpredictable course that the new Trump Administration will take, most of the regional and global powers appear to be adopting a wait and see posture. Like Israel, the Saudis, and the Gulf States appear to be moving tentatively, although they all expect a very favorable environment for themselves after January 20.  

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Global Footnote

It is truly unfathomable that the international community continues to seek to isolate and attack Israel—which is certainly not perfect or blameless in its conduct of the war in Gaza—but the world cannot properly condemn the years of ruthless killing committed by Assad against his own people as well as the terrorist groups to whom Assad gave shelter during his 25 years in power.