Jared Kushner is preparing to fly from Israel to Morocco tomorrow with a group of Americans and Israelis to formalize another Trump executed diplomatic coup between Israel and her Arab neighbors. For several years already, Israel had established unofficial relationships with many of the Arab States especially in the Gulf. None of them were public but contacts and interactions between Israel and her oil rich neighbors were on-going. Kushner’s orchestrated trip now to Morocco formalizes another new relationship in the Middle East.
Unofficial contacts regarding commercial and economic matters between Israel and the Gulf States as well as Morocco existed even before the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was adopted by the P5 +1 and the European Union. Opposition to Iran’s aggressive conduct in the Gulf region and growing fear of the Shiite regime, already had brought Israel and the Sunni Arab states into a quasi-security alliance.
In October, President Trump and his son-in-law, celebrated these relationships in the Abraham Accords signed in Washington by Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. These diplomatic relations between the parties elevated the previously informal interactions to the public domain. Israelis are now traveling and visiting openly in Abu Dhabi and an Emirati sheik just bought a 50% stake in the Beitar Jerusalem football team.
Since the Abraham Accords were signed Kushner has brought Sudan almost to the same place, held extensive negotiations with the Saudis, and now appears to have brought Morocco to the point of normalizing relations with Israel. From Israel as well as from the Gulf States’ perspective these deals look impressive. When considered with a somewhat more detached eye, however, there are a number of curious things transpiring here not the least is the timing and that all this activity took in the waning days of the Trump Administration.
All these deals are being announced in Washington, unlike the initial Sadat visit to Jerusalem or the Oslo Accords which were announced by the participants. This immediately opens the question as to why the country doling out the sweeteners in all these deals was really an outside third party; the U.S. and the Trump Administration.
The Arab States receive trade and technological exchange in the agreement with Israel and a powerful military ally, (presumably) ready to act for their mutual benefit, if necessary, against Iran. The Trump Administration has offered the U.A.E. alone a $23.37 billion arms deal including the much coveted 50 F-35A fighters, 18 MQ-9B drones and air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions. Aside from the bonanza for Lockheed Martin, it is not clear what the U.S. will gain from this deal.
The skeptics of this arms deal both in Israel and the U.S. are not convinced that selling this equipment to the U.A.E. will enhance regional stability in the region. As with numerous other pieces in these dramatic moves in the Middle East by President Trump, many people have suggested that there must be underlying payback for the Trump-Kushner businesses to be revealed only after January 20.
Similarly, and perhaps even more seriously, is the billion-dollar weapons deal with Morocco which appears to be accompanying King Mohammed acquiescence to the opening Israel, which Trump (Kushner) announced. Here too, in addition to the weapons sale, the Trump Administration has agreed to recognize Moroccan sovereignty of the Western Sahara, which has long been under dispute. This move had been opposed for years by American Governments by both Republican as well as Democratic Administrations. Exactly what the sweetener is for Trump also remains to be seen.
The takeaway for Israel and certainly for Trump, is to complicate regional activities for the incoming Biden Administration. Re-entering the Iran deal, restricting arms sales in the Middle East, elevating human rights issues throughout the Middle East, and refocusing attention on the Palestinian question will all be muddied by this last-minute maneuvering by Trump and Kushner. Wiggling out or revisiting any of these deals will require considerable finesse from the incoming foreign policy team.
The unanswered questions include: for how long the Arabs States will sustain their relations with Israel; how dangerous might the weapons sales eventually be for Israel; why did Trump expend any political capital to close these deals when the parties already had an implicit understanding.
As has been the case with virtually everything that President Trump has touched during the past four years in foreign policy it has always been a puzzle to determine what America has received. In this instance it is unclear as well as to what Israel—except perhaps for Prime Minister Netanyahu—has received, beyond some window dressing. For example, Israel’s relationship with India, Kenya, Japan, and even China, have produced much clearer benefit.
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