Israel and Biden

Unlike most of the world’s democratic leaders who were greatly relieved by the results of the American election, the Government of Israel singularly was not pleased. For most of America’s friends, the fact that they will not need to deal with President Donald Trump after January 20, 2021, was a very positive change. This is true for America’s allies both in Europe and Asia. Israel is going to face a new reality and a need to adjust to a new policy-making team in Washington which is unlikely to give Israel all it wishes from the U.S. On both a personal and policy levels, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu bet on the wrong horse in the U.S. election race and he was not even subtle about it.

Over the past decade Netanyahu had established an extremely close relationship with the Republican Party. Since 2017 his relationship with President Trump has appeared as if the President was Bibi’s sugar daddy. From his personal dislike for President Obama; to his willingness to circumvent the White House and work directly with the Republican controlled Congress; to his disagreement with the U.S. position on the Iran nuclear deal; Netanyahu consciously ignored the Democrats. He abandoned any pretense of the traditional bi-partisanship relationship between Israeli and American leaders and especially with Congress. (It should be noted that despite Bibi’s snubbing of the Democrats, most Democrats maintain an overwhelmingly favorable feeling towards Israel.)

Netanyahu now will need to establish trust with the incoming Democratic Biden Administration. This will not be difficult with President-elect Biden who has a very long record of genuinely caring about Israel and the U.S.-Israel relationship. Bibi knows Biden very well from the time that he and Senator Biden worked together in the 1980’s when Netanyahu was the DCM at the Israeli embassy in Washington and subsequently Israel’s Ambassador at the United Nations.

Netanyahu can suggest correctly that he and Biden are friends, but he needs to re-build his relationship with the Democratic Party which will be prepared to urge President Biden not to endorse all of Israel’s initiatives. Biden’s national security team undoubtedly will encourage additional bi-lateral relationships between Israel and her Arab neighbors, but they will not foster an arms build-up by these Arab states with no strings attached. There will be tension in how to proceed with policy towards Iran, the Palestinians, Israeli annexation plans, and the Democratic Party’s clear support for a two-state solution to the conflict. The Biden Administration, once they proceed with their Middle East policy, will not rush to accept and ratify every proposal that the Israelis will seek, as did President Trump. The Israelis will be forced to negotiate for every initiative.

For Netanyahu, this comes just before his own corruption trail is scheduled to begin in Jerusalem. His own coalition has not moved to exempt the Prime Minister from standing trial. Netanyahu cannot expect that the Biden Administration will offer Israel sweets as did Donald Trump to keep him safely ensconced in office.

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Security Dangers

At a more general level but involving Israel as well, foreign leaders and foreign Governments are all greatly concerned that bi-lateral and multi-lateral security matters might be gravely compromised by Donald Trump as he exits office and resumes private engagements. Due to Trump’s known lack of discretion, many countries recognized that classified information was disclosed by the Trump Administration. His failure to protect classified information was observed, for example, during a May 10, 2017, meeting in the oval office. In a conversation with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak, the President revealed crucial details to the Russians concerning operations being conducted by an American ally; in this instance it was Israel.

America’s friends ought to be concerned that the President now or after he leaves office will be cavalier about disclosing highly classified information. Furthermore, if during its waning days the outgoing Trump Administration reveals classified information concerning current national security initiatives, American programs, key operatives, and intelligence assets could be dangerously compromised. Alternatively, if the President destroys documents and records—such as the notes taken by the translator during the President’s private meetings with Vladimir Putin—it too could compromise and complicate the next administration’s ability to conduct national security and foreign policy. New decision-makers would not be aware of all that transpired over the past four years. It is this behavior as well which should give the Biden transition team, as well as all Americans, cause for serious concern.