Sad but true the tragic events that have transpired between Israel and the Palestinians over the past several days were almost inevitable. Even before the new Israeli Government was sworn into office, there had been heightened tension between Jews and Arabs in Jerusalem and on the West Bank. The tragic loss of life this past week was predictable as the fanatical forces in the newly formed coalition which Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu had formed sought to impose their long-held views on how to treat the Palestinians in the occupied territories. The political extremists who now control key ministries or offices within these ministries are not prepared to relinquish their radical demands and Bibi requires their backing to insure that he is not eventually convicted of corruption.
There is a clear linkage between the terrorist attacks against two Israeli young men driving in a car, the revengeful destructive rampaging of settlers through an Arab village, and the ever-increasing number of demonstrators marching in the streets protesting against the so-called judicial reforms of the Netanyahu Government. To be clear, killing is not a tolerable, acceptable form of protest. Violence only begats more violence in response. Politically, the coalition now will be pressured into acquiescing to the radical demands of the political extremists first, before it proceeds to final passage of Netanyahu’s judicial reform package.
With the presence of extreme political and religious hardliners in the Government, both Israelis and Arabs have reacted even more aggressively. Arabs, especially on the West Bank, find the proposed policies and positions of many of the new Ministers in charge of the territories to be intolerable. Arabs leaders and people in the street are more convinced than ever that Israel—especially in the guise of this Government--will never grant them any form of independent sovereignty.
At the same time the Israeli settlers on the West Bank believe that Ministers who are supporters of their positions now in the coalition, the settlers’ demands for expanded settlements is inevitable. Acceptance of the outposts and hilltop settlements will be acceptable. In addition. the tragic, senseless murders of Jews and the destructive reprisals also exposed problems with the IDF, the police, and the border patrol. The failure to adequately anticipate and prevent reprisals as well as additional violence suggests a lack of anticipation of how serious the confrontation was growing. If order is not rapidly restored, then either the coalition will fall, or another major intifada could ensue.
The violent activity over the past few days on the West Bank is also a likely harbinger of the confrontations which could develop during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Beginning on Wednesday evening March 22, this feast will overlap with the Jewish festival of Passover which begins on the evening of April 5. While there was an apparent effort to de-escalate the hostilities-- with Jordan, Egypt, and American negotiators assembling in Aqaba--it was unable to effectuate an immediate end to the hostilities.
At the same time the growth in the numbers of leaders from many former intelligence branches as well as former high level military leaders who are attacking the Government’s planned judicial reform plan is surprising. In addition, to public figures, military reservists also are now challenging the specific policies which the coalition is proposing to address the West Bank violence. These retired military leaders have been extremely outspoken as well in protesting the challenge to democracy present in the proposed judicial reforms.
Other challenges to Netanyahu are coming in demonstrative ways from the business community in Israel and many foreign investors. It is becoming evident that many large sources of capital which were and had been flowing into the Israeli “start-up nation”, are now on hold if not being withdrawn.
Similarly, the Government is hearing serious voices from the Diaspora Jewish community challenging what Bibi is doing to the linkage of the fundamental democratic values which have bound the U.S. and Israel for almost 75 years. Members of the U.S. Congress largely continue to rally behind Netanyahu, but the exceptions and critics are growing. Senators and House Members will follow the lead of their constituents. If the dissent in the American Jewish community continues to grow, Israel’s support in Washington also will be increasingly challenged.
Only his hubris will permit Bibi to ignore these challenges.
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