Probably the only democratically elected leader who will be seriously upset and disappointed if Trump loses will be Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. If President Donald Trump loses his battle for re-election there will be much euphoria on the global stage, especially in the West. This will not be case the in Russia, Turkey, and many of the authoritarian regimes where Trump has befriended their leaders during the past four years.
Even prior to Trump’s election, Netanyahu already had built a particularly cozy relationship with the Republican Party and its strong evangelical supporters. Since the 2016 election, it appears as if all of U.S. policy in the Middle East has strategically as well as tactically reflected the extent of Israel and evangelical Christian’s influence on President Trump.
The much-heralded Trump Middle East “Deal of the Century” was seen by many observers as if it had been written in Tel Aviv and not in Foggy Bottom. U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and moving of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem were all U.S. decisions made as if they were taken from the Israeli playbook.
It should be clear that all these U.S. decisions were not themselves mistakes or inappropriate. The Trump Administration, however, has never accepted the notion that in making foreign policy, like all decision-making, there must be tradeoffs. (It remains a mystery that for all of Trump’s alleged skill as a dealmaker, he appears never to have understood that trade-offs are the essence of policymaking.) In the case of Israel and her neighbors—particularly the Palestinians—the U.S. never demanded that Israel give anything in return for these decisions.
Trump’s positions towards Israel will not be changed at a fundamental level if he loses the election. Former Vice-President Joe Biden has a long and deep commitment to Israel’s safety and security. The Trump Administration’s approach to Israel may well have suited Netanyahu but it will now set Israel up for a rude awakening on some levels, if a Biden Administration seeks to reset the terms of the regional balance. This especially would be true should Biden’s foreign policy include a desire to re-assert the need for a two-state solution with the Palestinians.
For Bibi Netanyahu, however, a Trump defeat could not be occurring at a worst time domestically, politically, and legally. Netanyahu has been seriously attacked for his mishandling of the Israeli coronavirus situation, particularly in his failure to clamp down on gross violations of health instructions among Arabs and the charedim, ultra-orthodox. To maintain his coalition Bibi needs the charedim; so, despite the anti-Netanyahu protests, the Prime Minister has caved into the charedim’s demands.
At the same time Netanyahu does not want another election but at the same time he needs support from the Knesset to avoid being forced to relinquish power should his legal battles, beginning in earnest in January, move against him. He needs to maintain power and have the Parliament protect him from any legal damage. What Bibi does not need at this time would be a major challenge from a new Democratic Administration in Washington. While Israel will not be the top foreign policy item on a Biden agenda, there will be certain aspects of the Middle East which will need to be addressed by a new Administration. These would include Iran, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States.
Netanyahu, ironically, does have one very real hope. The only political challenges that he currently faces are from his political right. There are no serious political leaders on the left or even the center-left. In addition, while over 70% of American Jews will probably support Joe Biden, Israeli pollsters suggest that Trump’s support among Israelis is at least as high. Among Israelis, this support is across the board while in the U.S., Jewish support for Trump is largely centered among the charedi, a majority of modern Orthodox Jews, and right-wing Republicans in the Jewish community.
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