After more than two-weeks of fighting following the Russian invasion of Ukraine several things appear to be clear. Some of them are obvious and others are more fundamental and long-term. The Ukrainian people are demonstrating extraordinary heroism and determination but the general picture is certainly exceedingly bleak at least at the moment although at the end of this tragedy the Ukrainians may well come out winners.
Russia clearly failed to achieve a quick victory in Ukraine. The Russian military was ill-prepared for battle and tactically unready for combat. Russian supply-lines were stretched far too long; troops were massed into combat-ready posture for weeks prior to the start of the invasion; and morale was brought even lower after the Russian soldiers realized first-hand that many of the troops whom they were engaging were Russians themselves. Finally, and critically important, many Western military observers suggested that Russian weapon systems did not perform nearly as well as was expected. Russian soldiers and their officers were thus extremely vulnerable to the greatly outnumbered but amazingly effective Ukrainian military force. The stalled attacks also enabled the exceedingly courageous guerilla tactics employed by Ukrainian paramilitary units to successfully disrupt Russian operations.
Now Putin appears to have decided to resort to the horrific approach of a scorch-earth attack that he previously employed in Syria in 2016. Having invaded Georgia in 2009 and Crimea 2014 with vicious attacks, he is now engaging Ukraine for the second time. Once again President Putin has no compunctions in flattening a country, this time Ukraine. Putin appears to be operating only with his own counsel, with a strategy in which human life is irrelevant, and innocent civilians are ripe targets for the Russian forces.
The ironic consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the fact that the NATO alliance appears to be more united than ever. There are extensive preparations on-going for a dreaded next phase, while at the same time a united refugee program has been created within all the NATO countries. Government resources, both military as well as humanitarian, have emerged while the united economic effort to strangle Russia appears to have been adopted with hardly a dissent.
The extent of the further humanitarian disaster is terrifying. The West is facing the challenge of finding the resources to care for the Ukrainian refugees as their numbers are expected to double or even triples in the weeks ahead. Militarily, there is a genuine concern about a possible “accident” that could occur as the Russian forces continue to employ more and more of their less sophisticated and older models of their weapons. The major concern—beyond an agonizing and prolonged war—is if as the fighting continues it leave Russia in a sufficiently weakened military position, that Putin will resort to using tactical nuclear weapons? Can the West even prevent that possibility and/or how would they respond?
President Biden and his national security apparatus, meanwhile, so far have demonstrated a steady and firm leadership with regard to the foreign policy and defense aspects of decision-making. Polling has shown that the American people appear to be behind the President. The challenges that Biden now faces are domestic and political ones.
As long as the American public supports the Administration’s conduct, Republican critics are likely to lay low. Despite having successfully passed the FY 2022 budget, only five and a half months late, the President needs to make decisions regarding oil imports and domestic spending which likely will rile some of the progressive Democrats. Spending priorities as well as global humanitarian needs in Biden’s new budget may well slow some desired progress on domestic needs. The party’s progressive wing needs to avoid making an issue out of these cuts or postponements, given the on-going geopolitical crisis. Similarly, dissatisfaction with some of Biden’s expected choices of new friends at this time—including Saudi Arabia and Venezuela—will be at a cost that all Americans will need to accept if the rising inflation and especially energy crunch is to be addressed effectively. While it should not be a priority for Members of Congress or party leaders, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine—if Biden and the West can resolve the effectively the crisis—might become a savior for the Democrats in the mid-year elections and even looking to 2024.
At the moment however, the question is how long can the world watch the escalating human suffering without intervening? If Putin does succeed here, what will be his next move? What are the take-aways that China and North Korea might garner from the West’s behavior in addressing crises in the 21st Century?
Comments