Something is fundamentally wrong with a political system when its leaders think that governing is achieved when critical national fiscal issues are best made by postponing making a decision. Everyone in Washington knows that there are crucial votes which must be taken. The vote will happen and the need to decide will not disappear. Making the decision in two months will not be simpler or easier.
These are the issues:
· Congress must raise the debt ceiling or the U.S. Government will default on its financial obligations and drive the world financial markets into chaos.
· Congress must enact appropriations bills to run the country for the current fiscal year which already began on October 1, and which they agreed to extend until December 3.
· The House still needs to pass the $1.0 trillion bi-partisan infrastructure package.
· Democrats in both the House and the Senate must decide on the parameters of the social spending reconciliation package, which now appears to be under $2.5 trillion.
If they accomplish these challenges, Congress will go home for Christmas feeling that it has been a good year. President Biden will be able to contemplate what he will do for an encore in the run-up to next year’s congressional elections. Both the White House and Congress know that these votes, plus the state of the economy, and the control of the pandemic will be the defining issues of the campaign season. At the moment, Congress is a long way from being able to wrap their Christmas presents.
Old Washingtonians know that Congress will eventually raise the debt ceiling and the appropriations bills will be passed—one way or another. Neither party wants the Government to default and neither side wants to play chicken with a possible Government shutdown. If necessary, Congress could enact another continuing resolution to postpone the appropriations process until after the New Year.
Ultimately, it will be passage of the infrastructure bill and the shape of the reconciliation social spending package, which must be compromised. These two issues require further work within the Democratic Party caucus. They do appear to be moving forward; but it could get bloody before it is over.
Having brought the initial $3.5 trillion package down to around $2.2-2.5 trillion, the key question will be how to arrive at the final number. There are decisions that the Democrats alone will need to make and the Republicans can only try to divert attention:
1. Fully fund some parts of the big bill and postpone the others.
2. Pass the big bill with less money for each item.
3. Pass the big bill but have it expire in three to five years, forcing a later Congress to decide what to do.
4. Include the debt extension in the reconciliation package to avoid another battle with the Republicans.
The most likely scenario at this point is numbers 1 and 4. Moderates will need to agree on a larger package than they want, and progressives will need to decide which are the key programs on which they can run most effectively next year. Neither side can continue to posture much longer once the calendar approaches the Thanksgiving recess. Both flanks of the party need to consider what combination of programs and taxes will be winners. If the fight persists much longer the American people will grow very tired, remember only the legislative pettiness, and the result at the ballot box in 2022 will be disastrous for the Democrats.
Most Washington observers--who have been through these wars before--believe that eventually all these pending issues will be resolved so that Congress will adjourn to go home for Christmas. It will not be pretty, and it will get even nastier than it is already. The self-righteous pontificating and the ugly animus that is being spun out from all quarters is appalling. Most of the debate is not substantive but rather political gamesmanship.
President Biden needs the reconciliation package passed to justify his electoral mandate. If the public becomes more anxious the entire campaign will be waged over the economy, and the Democrats will have too little to show the voters. Americans always vote their pocketbook and new programs will give them hope. Democrats can then spend the election year bragging about the new programs they enacted, while all the Republicans will have to fall back on is attacking the Democrats for being socialists.
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