Lessons from Virginia and New Jersey

The Message

The Democrats need to look at the nation’s concerns and not project a wish list of what they believe should trouble the electorate. In 2020 Americans were frightened by the scare tactic of “socialism” and by the racial unrest that had occurred during the Trump years. The closeness of so many House and Senate races reflected public dissatisfaction with the Democratic responses to these concerns, despite the fact that so many of these same voters found President Trump abhorrent. Yesterday’s elections, with different messaging, confirmed this behavior.

They need to energize their voters with their ideas. Democrats must not run against someone else’s message. In the Virginia and New Jersey campaigns—both of which the Democrats should have won easily—the progressive wing of the party scared the voters. The public was anxious but not because Congress had failed to complete action on the two fiscal bills, although passage might have helped the two gubernatorial campaigns. As a result, many voters cast ballots against the party in power.

Virginia women specifically voiced their concerns about education. In fact, education became a clear codeword consciously or sub-consciously for “race” in the minds of many centrists. Leaving aside Glenn Youngkin’s exploitation of the education issue as well as Terry McAuliffe’s mis-speak in the final days of the campaign. Democrats’ explicit or implied focus on the need to teach critical race theory frightened voters. This despite the fact that many of them would have agreed that curricula throughout the nation ought to be modified to recognize more clearly the history of racial injustice. ----------

“It's the Economy”

President Biden and the Democratic leaders failed to demonstrate sufficient attention to the continuing economic dislocation. Voters emerging from the pandemic as well as from its psychological impact, fear inflation (gas, food, clothing, car parts, etc.), shortages, unemployment, and a return of Covid. All of this is occurring as the voters fear an uncertain holiday season. The public always blames those in office for economic problems as James Carville--who designed “it’s the economy stupid” slogan—understood when he managed Bill Clinton’s campaign to defeat President George H.W. Bush’s re-election bid in 1992. Democrats again failed to present an image to the public that they were sufficiently sensitive to voters’ anxieties.

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Voters

The biggest problem facing the Democratic Party continues to be turnout. The Democrats need to understand very quickly that unless they consistently bring out their voters, they will not succeed in winning elections.

The American voter in modern times, until very recently, did not manifest a strong commitment to voting. There still is not a tradition of high voter turnout among eligible voters; although recent presidential years suggest it is improving. While this failure to vote has been true among all Americans it is especially present among Blacks and Latino voters. Their turnout in presidential years is better and it also increases in other elections when one of their own is on the ballot. In off-year elections—which are equally critical for minorities—participation of people of color drops off significantly.

Even before Barack Obama ran for President, the Rev. Jesse Jackson’s runs for President in 1984 and especially in 1988 clearly demonstrated the fact that minorities could be energized to turnout. (Admittedly, Mike Dukakis would probably not have won in 1988 anyway, but once Jesse Jackson was not on the ticket many African Americans were not motivated to vote. In addition, Jackson only made a half-hearted effort to bring them to the polls, after he did not get on the ticket.)

Since the defeat of President Trump in 2020, many of his supporters have sought to undermine efforts to enable additional voters from gaining easy access to the ballot box. Trump allies have made a major effort in state legislatures throughout the country to encumber new voters. Legislation has passed or is pending in 43 states to restrict registration opportunities, early voting, the number of voting sites, and absentee voting.

As the party in power—at least for another year—Democrats must attract voters, stop all internecine fights, and focus on winning. Even if they continue to pursue a progressive agenda, they must past such legislation or else modify their goals to demonstrate victories on which Democrats can run.

Democrats need to understand that winning is all that matters if their party wishes to stay in power to fight another day. Nothing is achieved in feeling good about having fought the good fight but having lost. If they do not respond to this challenge, 2022 will be a bloodbath for the Democratic Party.