Now that Israel has restored its strategic as well as tactical military dominance in the region, even for Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu it ought to be time for diplomatic resolution of Israel’s conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah. In less than two weeks, Israel has demonstrated to its citizens as well as it neighbors and adversaries throughout the world that it continues to be a force with which to be reckoned. After eleven months of fighting, it is past time to end the fighting.
It appears even Iran is getting skittish, at least in private. The Iranian Government had made its sole venture on the military front into the conflict in April when it attacked Israel. After its failed Saturday night flurry of multiple airborne weapons launched against Israel, there have been no new Iranian moves. It would be reasonable to assume that after Israel’s remarkable attacks in Beirut, Iran is too pragmatic to try to double down now against Israel, despite its public bluster.
The Biden Administration is no doubt pleased with Israel’s elimination of major regional terrorist leaders, despite its own dissatisfaction with Israel’s lack of consultation with the Pentagon. The actions of Israel’s intelligence attacks against Hezbollah’s phones, walkie-talkies (still not confirmed), and by the Israeli Air Force planes hopefully now will support a ceasefire proposal emanating from Washington and its allies. The West has no interest in supporting additional destruction of Lebanon.
President Biden together with other Western leaders will intensify efforts to orchestrate an immediate cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon. If the U.N. can be persuaded now to force Hezbollah to honor the 2006 U.N. Resolution 1701 and move military forces north of the Litani River, both Israel and Lebanon could permit the residents of their border communities to return home. It would remain for the U.N. and both sides to agree on how to implement and enforce this resolution; but it should be doable.
There is no question that the entire anti-Israel axis of evil has taken a major hit over the past two weeks. While the Gaza War continues to remain violent, if priority were given to the return of the remaining hostages, it would appear likely--given the events of the past two weeks as well as with pressure from Iran—that a cease-fire could be arranged.
Teheran needs to undertake a major reassessment of its global, economic, as well as military positions without engaging in any additional confrontations. There always has been a traditional view suggested by many Iran experts that the Iranian regime operates, generally, with a very high level of pragmatism, which these circumstances necessitate.
It would appear likely, that Iran could apply similar pressure now on Hamas to reach some type exit out of the continuing bloodbath in Gaza. It again would require Iranian pragmatism as well as its bankbook and that of other Hamas’ Shiite supporters versus Hamas’s determination not to accept a deal with Israel.
The critical variable as it has been throughout all efforts to deescalate the conflict since the brutal Hamas attack almost one year ago, appears to continue to be Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. It has been Netanyahu and his coalition’s extremist members whose persistence should get credit for Israel’s brilliant military successes, but they also bear the responsibility for all the intelligence and military failures that placed Israel in the terribly compromised position on October 7.
The political confrontations over judicial reform had already weakened Netanyahu’s public standing. His subsequent responsibility—which he has never acknowledged—for permitting Israel to be caught so unprepared to respond to the Hamas attack, have further complicated Bibi’s political position. Netanyahu undoubtedly will gain increased public support after successfully eliminating Hassan Nasrallah and many of his Hezbollah henchmen; yet he still is marked not only by his failures leading up to the Gaza War but the perceived priorities he has given for his own pending judicial corruption cases and the political viability of his coalition. Bibi continues to be faced with charges that he prioritized his personal concern for his own political future at the expense of the fate of Israeli hostages as well as the country’s national interest. It is Israel’s perceived callousness toward the civilian deaths in Gaza, which has also been a major contributor to the dramatic rise globally in anti-Semitism.
What is truly remarkable is that despite this situation, there remain many regional powers, most notably the Saudis, who appear ready—after the current global confrontation re-sets—to make dramatic changes in their relationships with Israel. There is also a possible shift in direction which might occur in the U.S. after the November election, plus the unpredictable moves from China as well as Russia. Meanwhile, unless Israel escalates a ground campaign in Southern Lebanon, the Middle East might be able to move to a point of greater stability.
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