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KAHNTENTIONS

KAHNTENTIONS is a blog post written by Gilbert N. Kahn, Professor of Political Science at Kean University in Union, New Jersey. Beginning in 2011 KAHNTENTIONS was hosted by the New Jersey Jewish News which recently ceased written publication. KAHNTENTIONS presents an open and intellectually honest analysis of issues facing the United States, Israel, as well as Jews world-wide.

BY GILBERT N. KAHN

"These are the times that try men's souls."

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Middle East Notes


Hostages


It would seem that both Israel and Hamas have exhausted themselves in jockeying for holding the up-card and are actually moving towards a significant exchange of hostages and prisoners accompanied by an extended cease-fire. The barbarism displayed over when, how, where, and whether to release totally innocent victims of a grotesque slaughter on October 7th is worthy of a much more primitive time. Assuming that this phase of the Gaza War might be moving to a conclusion—and it will be accompanied undoubtedly by fits and starts—it might bring Israel and the Palestinians to a moment of preliminary reconciliation.

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Hamas


As was predicted by many analysts at the beginning of Israel’s retaliation against Hamas’ slaughter of Israelis, at least some of the leaders of this terrorist group will not be prosecuted—at least not during the current action. The degrading of the military capabilities of Hamas clearly has been achieved, albeit not totally. Elimination of the pathological hatred of Hamas’ ideology cannot and will not disappear as did not that of ISIS, or Islamic Jihad, or the PLFLP, etc. Sadly, obsessive hatred has been a present characteristic of human behavior since the beginning of civilization. The end of prejudice, violence, bias, and hate has rarely been eliminated on the battlefield. The only hope for Israelis and Palestinians to find a modus vivendi will come when both sides recognize the need to respect the other’s legitimacy.

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Lebanon


If anything remarkable has been achieved over the past four months, it is the fact that a full scale violent military confrontation has not occurred between Israel and Hezbollah and its various proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. Presumably, it has largely been a result of the strategy employed by President Biden and U.S. forces and the restraint that Iran has pursued, that a larger confrontation has not erupted.

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Borders


On practical level, Israel will need the international community as well as the Palestinians and Hezbollah to develop acceptable border arrangements so that Israelis in both the South and the North are able to return safely to their homes. The outline for the proper border in the North already exists but has failed to be enforced. Israel’s border with Gaza will need to be reenforced with some type of cordon sanitaire so that Israel’s south will not be overrun again by any rehabilitated terrorist forces in Gaza.

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Saudi Arabia


Saudi Arabia appears to be willing to consider moving into a more engaged role in the future of the Middle East. Perhaps initially influenced by its deep-seated hatred of Iran, the Saudis now recognize the possibility to gain significant military support from the Biden Administration if the Gaza War can be concluded. Saudi leaders, together with those in Bahrain, Qatar, and Egypt appear prepared to facilitate the rebuilding of Gaza and to guide the Palestinians in future negotiations with Israel. For the Israelis, there is a clear sense that this Saudi regime is seriously considering recognizing Israel, which could have a major impact on any future political entity that can be created for the Palestinians in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. In addition, both Israel and Saudi Arabia potentially will have much to gain from each other economically and technologically.

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Netanyahu


Ironically, one of the most difficult unknowns to resolve will be the political situation in Israel. Recent polls have indicated that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has lost widespread respect and confidence from a very sizeable portion of the Israeli public. The Netanyahu coalition bloc which currently has 64 out of 120 seats in the Knesset would be reduced to 45 seats. The National Unity Party headed by Benny Gantz (who is a member of the war-cabinet) and his bloc would receive 75 seats according to the same poll. 


Under Israeli law, a new election does not need to be held before November 2026, suggesting that the existing coalition would need to dissolve for an earlier election to be required. Bibi’s actions continue to placate his extreme right-wing coalition members, including announcing last week increased West Bank housing. Similarly, it remains to be seen how the Israeli Government will address or finesse the IDF’s call for increased conscription and reservist service from Israeli males at the same time that Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox (charedi) flank is demanding a vote on its proposal to make permanent their exemptions from military service.

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Biden


President Joe Biden needs the fighting in Gaza to end. For his own strategic and military considerations this war has created increased challenges for U.S. shipping in the Gulf, elevated tensions with Iran, and exacerbated the continuing Western confrontation with Russia in Ukraine. Biden has suffered on multiple fronts for his steadfast support of Israel. His search for a path to reelection clearly has been impacted by the war, especially within the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. The President’s reelection could well hinge on insuring that this bloc of voters in key swing states do not sit out this election.  In addition, a cease-fire in Gaza also will give the President an opportunity to move forward positively with U.S. initiatives in the Middle East. This would distract voters from the Gaza War and could solidify some of his support. It also could neutralize some of the continuing ugly legislative battles Biden faces with Congress in the next few weeks and months.

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