Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu appears to be leading Israel into a collection of crises which are largely of his own doing. Many of these are new problems but some have existed for decades. These long festering predicaments are compounded by the current, domestic political crises.
Most Israeli observers believe that Netanyahu’s extensive corruption trials will be reaching a serious breaking point in December. Assuming matters proceed ahead as anticipated Bibi should be on the witness stand by that time. It is, of course, not his direct testimony which will be problematic for the Prime Minister but the cross-examination. It is that phase of the trial which Netanyahu desperately believes he must avoid. He recognizes that in Israel’s 75-year history, presidents, prime ministers, as well as former office holders have been incarcerated. Netanyahu’s entire political behavior over that past several years has been predicated on his determination to avoid jail. His entire judicial reform package has been built with this political strategy in mind. It influenced his selection of coalition members and his willingness to kowtow to many of the individual parties’ demands. Similarly, the parties in the Government understand that Netanyahu needs them and their total allegiance if he is to avoid prison.
Now, all fifteen members of the Israeli High Court of Justice will convene on September 12, for the first time in its history as a unit, for a hearing on the Knesset’s “reasonableness” law. This hearing challenging the first part of the judicial reform package to Israel’s Basic Law occurs only days before the Jewish New Year and the holiday season. It also may be the final session of this court before the chief justice and an associate justice face compulsory retirement. Their departures and the vacancies which they will create in mid-October have motivated the Government now to seek a postponement of this court hearing. (Filling court vacancies will be another critical portion of Netanyahu’s judicial reform package.)
The Prime Minister is also dealing with a set of ultra-Orthodox (charedi) parties which are demanding the immediate implementation of their coalition plank to make permanent an exemption for Charedi military conscription. When the Israeli parliament returns for its fall session on October 15, these parties are demanding that Bibi fulfill his agreement to formalize their demand for military service exemption. Only then do these parties suggest that they will be willing to consider additional measures in his judicial reform package.
Perhaps the most disturbing set of events which have emerged from the Netanyahu Government’s confrontation with the protesters is that it is clearly beginning to influence the crown jewel of Israeli society, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). A standing army with military reservists who serve for almost 20 years following their 30 months of compulsory service, is a badge of honor among Israelis. The fact that there are reservists now refusing to do their compulsory reserve duty and most critically air force pilots reneging on performing their required weekly combat training, suggests the seriousness of the pushback among many Israelis. No matter how often Bibi waves the fear flag of a nuclear Iran, many proud Israeli soldiers are prepared to disregard their commitments as they watch Israeli democracy being disrupted.
Equally important is the damage that Netanyahu is doing to Israel’s relationship with the United States. Many friends and supporters in the Jewish community and the larger American public are distressed by the Israeli Government’s disregard of the enormous protests which continue against the judicial reform. They are equally distressed by the challenge to democracy in Israel and the growing authoritarianism exhibited by the Israeli Government. Equally, troubling for many is the hardline policies being employed by Israeli security forces and the IDF against Palestinians protesters in the West Bank.
This situation has frustrated many of Israel’s friends in Washington, so much so that there are a growing number of Members of Congress who believe that American military assistances for Israel needs to be re-examined. The latest call for reductions in U.S. aid occurred last week when the Netanyahu Government announced its intention to increase budgetary allocations by at least $190 million in 2023-24 for Jewish settlements on the West Bank. The reprogramming of funds in the budget for additional settlements and settlement expansion is another part of the coalition agreement to which Netanyahu agreed with his extreme right-wing partners.
For American lawmakers and even the very pro-Israel Biden Administration, these actions are creating increased tension in Washington. They are unlikely to be ameliorated by a yet to be scheduled fall meeting between Biden and Netanyahu, expected to coincide with the opening of the U.N. General Assembly in September. These discussions undoubtedly will be influenced by debates in the U.S. and Israel concerning a possible U.S.-Israel-Saudi Arabia deal. This too would require Netanyahu to obtain major concessions from his extreme right-wing coalition concerning any future Palestinian state, something the right even has refused to consider.
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