Reports indicate that Israel has begun to enter Gaza on the ground to uproot as many terrorist fighters as possible and Hamas operatives that they can without getting stuck in a protracted occupation of the Gaza Strip. Having exited from Gaza in 2005, Israel recognizes that there is no positive gain for Israel to remain in Gaza any longer than is necessary for security purposes. The issue which all observers and strategists are asking, however, is how will Gaza be administrated once the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) complete this campaign?
It is very clear that for the non-Hamas affiliated Palestinians in Gaza, Hamas’s governance of the Gaza Strip has failed to provide any sense of a secure future for its inhabitants. Beside Hamas absconding with much of the humanitarian goods as well as the monies that have been provided over the years to the Gazans, the majority of the Palestinians in Gaza seek a non-confrontational, economic, and socially productive life which was not provided to them by Hamas. It is clear that Hamas deeply infiltrated the workers who had received job opportunities in Israel, and that these “workers” provided much of the intelligence about the border crossings, settlements, activities, and schedules.
Future economic relations with Israel will need to undergo a major reconsideration and revamping. Successful economic relations with Israel are critical for Gazans. They must be convinced again that their lives can be improved without a terror organization administrating Gaza, whose single goal is destroying Israel, thus undermining those hands that are ready to feed.
The U.S., American allies, and, most importantly, Israel must begin immediately to address two major issues concerning the future of Gaza. The first is Iran and its surrogates. The second is post war reconstruction.
Iranian influence in the region has escalated to the point where most of the radical terrorist groups—in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank—are receiving their ideological nourishment from the Ayatollahs in Teheran. It is also clear from Israeli evidence that Hamas and presumably other Iran supported terrorist groups are now obtaining highly sophisticated military training—in Iran. The IDF has already discovered materials to this effect which supports Israeli intelligence.
President Biden has given Iran significant signals by virtue of U.S. naval maneuvers in the Middle East, both in the Mediterranean and in the Gulf, that the U.S. is prepared to respond or facilitate an Israeli response to any dramatic Iranian supported military escalation. If this Iranian effort to rebalance the region moves to create an actual second front for the Israeli forces—rather than only the intermittent tit-for tat—the war in Gaza may be merely a brief preface to a major, and more serious regional military confrontation.
Consideration of reconstruction of Gaza must begin now as well. It will fall into place once Israel completes its military degrading of terrorist forces in Gaza. Accompanying Israel’s eventual withdrawal from Gaza, there must be some form of a regional group created and assembled to avoid a return of a Hamas like terrorist group using and abusing Palestinians in Gaza. Everyone understands what the elements need to be. The conflicts between Shiites and Sunnis will continue but it had become evident in the months before the October 6 massacre that numerous leaders in the Muslim world were prepared to move on beyond the Arab-Israeli conflict, especially Saudi Arabia. The Abraham Accords have become the instrument which Iran strenuously opposes because it is moving the Muslim world towards normalcy and reconciliation with Israel. For Iran, however, except for their radical supporters in the region, they are gradually being outnumbered.
This discussion, however, returns to the critical human dimension of the over 200 hostages still being held as political pawns by Hamas in Gaza. As understood by Israel and the U.S. as well as by all the Western allies, the use of human beings—mostly civilians—is the most graphic evidence of the unwillingness of the Hamas murderers to consider Jews as anything more than bargaining chips. Military conflicts produce losses in combat. Women, children, and the elderly are not combatants.
Similarly, innocent Gazans being deprived of basic human necessities by incessant Israeli shelling produces only additional tragic loss of human life. It will not positively affect how Gazans will feel about their prospects for a better life after Hamas is delegitimized.
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