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KAHNTENTIONS

KAHNTENTIONS is a blog post written by Gilbert N. Kahn, Professor of Political Science at Kean University in Union, New Jersey. Beginning in 2011 KAHNTENTIONS was hosted by the New Jersey Jewish News which recently ceased written publication. KAHNTENTIONS presents an open and intellectually honest analysis of issues facing the United States, Israel, as well as Jews world-wide.

BY GILBERT N. KAHN

"These are the times that try men's souls."

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Political Short-Takes



President Joe Biden’s announcement last week that he intends to run for a second term took almost no one by surprise. The expected rematch between Biden and former President Donald Trump now seems to be all but finalized, but there are some interesting, non-substantive wrinkles, which likely will affect the 2024 campaign. In fact, these factors may well be decisive in the eventual outcome.


Biden’s age is and will continue to be a campaign issue and it will also influence how voters see Vice-President Kamala Harris as a potential successor, should Biden not finish his term. The President seems intent on addressing his age head-on as he did on Saturday night at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner. In a sense, Biden’s remarks concerning his age before the White House Press Corps felt somewhat similar to Senator John F. Kennedy’s addressing his Catholicism in his appearance before the Greater Houston Memorial Ministerial Association in September 1960. It virtually silenced the public discussion of Kennedy’s religion. (Curiously, in 2023, most people do not even realize that President Biden himself is Catholic. It is a non-issue for most Americans.)

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The Republican primary campaign appears to be petering out before it even starts. Trump is amassing a huge bankroll as well as collecting endorsements from elected officials—even from Members of Congress from DeSantis’ home base. The announced candidates, former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson’s campaigns all appear to be “dead in the water”. This is true despite the fact that Haley did have a decent fund-raising quarter, presumably from Republicans hoping against hope that Trump will not gain traction. If the former President does not have serious challengers in the Republican primaries, his beloved rallies and debates will be flat.


It is beginning to emerge as if Florida Governor Ron DeSantis—who was seen to have had the best chance to challenge the former president-- may well have blown his best moment to throw his hat in the ring for the 2024 Republican nomination. Regardless of whether or when DeSantis declares his intention to seek the nomination, it appears that his best chance to gain any national traction is probably behind him. If timing is an important factor in politics, DeSantis appears to lack an understanding as to how to read the Trump/Republican Party tea leaves. For a smart person who certainly understands how to score political points and take local Florida issues and transport them on to the national stage, DeSantis’ pre-presidential performance has truly been a bust.

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The major challenge for Biden, who successfully avoided Trump in the reclusive COVID campaign of 2020, will be to evade being baited by Trump’s highly predictable vitriol. The attacks by Trump against Biden, especially on the age issue, undoubtedly will be ugly and predictable. Trump will be most vulnerable in some of the key demographics which he will need to capture--suburbanites, middle-class women, and people of color--should he use this issue to drive his campaign attack. What will be curious to watch will be how many Republicans in key Senate and House races follow Trump’s attack dog mode. Democrats will need to retain the high road. They must avoid falling into the gutter with Trump and instead stay on the right side of the key issues: the economy, abortion rights, the environment, and police reform.

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At this point it seems that the 2024 primary and general election contests are likely to have one major distraction. There is little doubt that Donald Trump will be battling major lawsuits around the country in the midst of his race for re-election. For some of those legal battles he may well need to be present in the courtroom. While undoubtedly Trump will parlay the numerous suits into a major public relations show which will energize his base, it is likely that the larger national electorate will tire and become annoyed at his shenanigans. His legal issues also will be a distraction during the general election campaign.

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The major domestic fight for President Biden this spring/summer continues to be with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy over the debt ceiling and budget cuts. While Biden will eventually win on the debt ceiling--everyone knows he must win—budget negotiations actually are Biden’s forte. He understands how these bargaining sessions historically have gone. The problem McCarthy faces in 2023 is that, assuming McCarthy wants to work out a legitimate compromise, appears hamstrung by his extremely narrow House majority. This may force McCarthy to operate outside the Republican Party’s own interests. If McCarthy plays chicken with the President over the debt-ceiling and forces Biden’s hand, McCarthy should call former House Speakers Newt Gingrich or John Boehner for advice as to how poorly government shutdowns have worked when the Republicans controlled the House.





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