Politics May Not Be Silly This Election Season

One is never sure what the snows of Iowa and New Hampshire will be like or how well the voters in their respective caucuses and primary will predict the future. Curiously much like football fans in Buffalo, it will not be the snow which will influence whether people turnout for today’s Iowa caucuses. Winter nights in Iowa are always weather challenging. It is just a matter of degree.

Political scientists frequently have observed that one of the real disincentives affecting voter turnout is when the polls and the public assume their votes do not matter, that the contest is already decided. In the most recent contested Iowa caucus in 2016, voter turnout was over 185,000 voters. The expectation is that turnout on Monday night will be about one-third less. In addition, Iowa is a strange state because in three of the last four Republican primaries, the eventual Republican nominee did not win the Iowa Caucuses; Governor Mike Huckabee won in 2008 not Senator John McCain, Senator Rick Santorum won in 2012 not Mitt Romney, and Senator Ted Cruz won in 2016 not Donald Trump.

More often than not Iowa may be a prognosticator of nothing other than the sentiments of a small slice of American voters. This is not to suggest that if former President Trump wins the caucuses, he will not be the Republican nominee. Nevertheless, for the Republican Party, there may well be some interesting data that will emerge concerning what are the major factors or issues which are influencing voters’ decision in 2024: the economy, military spending, immigration, abortion, etc.

What might matter going into next week’s January 23rd New Hampshire primary is how well the other two significant challengers do in Iowa, former Governor Nikki Haley and Governor Ron DeSantis. If the voters reflect recent polling and DeSantis’ vote trails badly in third place, his campaign is basically over—probably even before New Hampshire. If Haley makes a better than expected showing in Iowa, then despite all the angry bluster that will flow from Mar-a-Lago, she will move on to New Hampshire with at least some wind in her sails.

What is painful in watching these electoral maneuverings among Republicans in Iowa, is that they appear to be totally personality driven. Morale in the nation—as well as throughout the world—is very low.

Immigration is a specific problem for the U.S. on its Southern border, but there continues to be a huge movement of people seeking asylum in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. People seeking to escape war, hunger, and political radicalism are escalating. More and more developed countries are imposing greater and greater restrictions and hardships for political and humanitarian refugees.

What began on October 7 as an horrific terrorist attack against Israel by the Gaza based Hamas forces, is gradually escalating into what could become a major regional confrontation. It is not only that Israel is facing its threats against its sovereignty from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, but there have been increased terrorist attacks against Israelis on the West Bank and most recently within Israel itself.

This increase in terrorist actions against Israel by radical Muslim groups supported by Iran, have now escalated into a series of incidents seriously threatening international shipping. Iranian supported Houthi rebels operating out of Yemen have intensified assaults, largely by drones, encumbering cargo vessels seeking to traverse the Red Sea to enter the Suez Canal. The consequence of these attacks has been to necessitate ships to significantly increase their voyages and thus their costs by sailing around the Horn of Africa. Having gained British military participation as well as Sunni Arab support, President Joe Biden has challenged the Houthi rebels. American and British planes and drones are now seeking to degrade the capacity of these rebels to persist in disrupting global navigation through the Red Sea.

The war in Ukraine appears at best to passing through a momentary military stalemate. While the European allies appear prepared to extend additional military support to Ukraine, President Biden’s request for supplemental assistance is bogged down in Congress, primarily by Republicans in the House.

Sadly, as the U.S. observes Martin Luther King Day, it is perhaps the ugliness of the hatred swirling around the country, which is most alarming and coinciding with Americans entering the extended electoral season. There is a sense of gloom which is passing through the hearts and minds of many Americans. There is an element of total implausibility in considering the fact that former President Trump--who is facing 91 felony criminal indictments and will be standing trial during the months ahead for a series of state and federal crimes--is positioned to run for president in November. It is also the fact that he not only has a chance to win re-election and what that might do to the country and the world, but the fact that even should Trump lose, many fear that he might be able to manipulate his minions to enable him to seize power anyway.

It is in this context that as America enters its so-called “silly season” of electoral politics, that many are actually fearing that this time it is truly a “scary” season.