Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu appears to be very pleased with the results of the U.S. election. Pre-election polls had suggested that almost two-thirds of Israelis preferred Donald Trump to Kamala Harris. Most geopolitical analysts as well as most political consultants have suggested that Israel’s right-wing coalition clearly preferred an electoral victory for Trump.
The Israeli right viewed Harris and many Democrats to be too critical of Israel’s conduct of the war in favoring an immediate cease-fire on humanitarian grounds alone. This position prevailed in some circles among Democrats who have argued that the 400+ day war has taken far too many lives of innocent Palestinian civilians—men, women, and children—while negotiations for the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas not being prioritized.
Among American Jews, exit polling suggested that Harris was preferred by 79% of Jews, although ultra-Orthodox (Charedi) Jews preferred Trump by over 90% and Modern Orthodox by 60-65%. (Orthodox Jews compose roughly 20-25% of American Jews.) While these U.S. numbers will undoubtedly be clarified and refined when the full vote is desiccated, these results do suggest a serious split between American Jews and Israelis.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu is touting the fact that he has spoken three times with the President-elect. On the other hand, in an unprecedented move, the largest gathering of American Jewish professionals, fund-raisers, and lay-leaders meeting in Washington this week opted not to invite the Prime Minister to address their meeting—even remotely. Rather, they invited Israel’s President Issac Herzog to represent the State of Israel at their gathering.
What the new President will do once he is in office is unpredictable, but during the campaign he had indicated his intention to grant Israel almost carte blanche in its pursuit of Hamas, Hezbollah, and West Bank terrorists. It remains to be seen what Vice-President-elect JD Vance--who had advocated a strong isolationist position--as well as other members of the incoming Administration will have to say about continued U.S. support for Israel as well as extended funding of the War.
With respect to the Hamas attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, many Americans are seriously concerned about how a cease-fire can be achieved. Now that the Government of Qatar announced the ousting of the Hamas delegation, prospects appear even dimmer for the continuation of peace talks. (This despite the fact that Egypt has indicated its willingness to host continuing meetings.)
Perhaps the most disturbing outgrowth of the stagnation in any movement towards resolving this conflict has been the growing intensification of anti-Israel, pro-Hamas sentiment in the U.S. on college campuses, and in the public sphere—especially on social media. It has unleashed anti-Semitic attacks against Israelis and Jews throughout the world reaching its most dangerous manifestation at the football match in Amsterdam last week.
This anti-Semitic backlash against Jews and Israelis could well intensify both in the U.S. as well as throughout Europe. Many Democrats are suggesting that Harris’ defeat was a consequence in part for her failure to detach herself from President Biden’s full-fledged support of Israel immediately following and since the October 7th massacre. The Israeli polls which showed preference for Trump over Harris, certainly did not quiet Democrats’ bitterness with Israel and growing empathy for Palestinians. Similarly, European countries now are fearing a possible withdrawal from NATO by the Trump Administration, expanded annexation moves by Russian President Valdimir Putin, and economic chaos in trade relations with the U.S. Many of these same countries have a history of blaming Jews for political and economic disruption.
Over the next weeks, the Biden Administration will still be in charge as the President-elect prepares to move back into the White House. As is the case during every transition, much is speculated about what will happen, but little is known—including concerning personnel.
In the case of Donald Trump there is one significant difference between his arrival in Washington in January 2017 and this coming January. It is apparent that his transition team has been working full steam for some time. There appear to be numerous policy positions and executive actions which Trump will likely take immediately following his inauguration.
Whether Trump will move ahead as aggressively on some issues as he has suggested remains to be seen, but the new team is expected to be in high gear on day one. How this will affect the situation in the Middle East, Trump’s relationship with Netanyahu, with American Jews, and with Arab leaders will become quickly evident. What is clear is that the unknowns that many nations and some leaders as well as politicians are feeling now, are a true reflection of Trump’s style of decision-making of total control.
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