The human tragedy that is continuing to unfold in Israel and in Gaza could have been avoided, anticipated, and, perhaps, largely prevented if the Israeli Government had looked at the calendar as recently as a few months ago. The end of Ramadan invariably is a moment of heightened tension between Muslims and Jews in Israel, especially in Jerusalem. Evening prayer services at the end of a day’s fasting and the Id feast always energize Arab groups which might be ripe for a confrontation. This is especially true as worshippers descend from the Al Aksa mosque in Jerusalem. Check the calendar and back off.
The fact that there are reports of rocks and stones once again having been stored on the Temple Mount to pelt worshippers at the Wall below clearly suggest that some of the militant Muslims had intended to create a confrontation. This is an exact repetition of the events that had occurred in 2002 following then Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s visit to the Temple Mount which triggered the Second Intifada. How could no one have inspected the status of the mosque plaza to ascertain if some of the Arabs were waiting to provoke another clash. Check the calendar, it is Ramadan.
The Jerusalem Day celebration, which includes a tradition of young Israelis marching through the Muslim Quarter of the Old City of Jerusalem on the way to the Kotel or Western Wall waving Israeli flags, invariably presents a potential for tension and confrontation. This march also inflames more radical Muslim groups and energizes extremist Jewish groups to become openly confrontational and to defy any authority. With the timing this year during Ramadan, check the calendar and reroute the march.
The verdict to be rendered by the Israeli High Court concerning the legitimacy of the Arab village at Sheikh Jarrah had been pending for a long while. There was nothing requiring that the decision be handed down this week, given all the potential flashpoints already present. Check the calendar and wait.
Finally, the dysfunctional Israeli political system having had four elections in a little over two years, has become a pressure cooker being pulled from all sides. None of the political leaders have any sense of national priorities other than their own political self-preservation. This is true for Binyamin Netanyahu as well as the political ambitions of Naftali Bennet, Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and others. A prolonged military confrontation will do little to encourage a considered political resolution—other than a temporary war cabinet followed by new elections.
On the military side, the horrific Hamas barrage into Israel even reaching the outskirts of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv demonstrated an Israeli intelligence slip. The huge quantity of rockets launched by Hamas and other radical groups in Gaza—close to 2000 in 48 hours-- suggest that there was a gross underestimation of the size of the radical groups’ weapons cache. It appears to exceed the Hezbollah inventory during the 2006 Lebanon War. Iranian military assistance has been flowing into Gaza at an incredibly high rate.
International response has been two-fold and many supporters of Israel do not seem to understand the distinction. Few countries on the world stage so far have criticized Israel for responding emphatically to the Gaza rocket attacks against Israeli civilians. The U.S., for instance, across the board has supported Israel’s right to defend itself. If Israel’s ground forces now commencing their entry into Gaza is extensive and the casualty levels rise with no prompt end foreseen, this support for Israel could change.
There is, however, a sense of pain in many circles for the expected expulsion of Arab families from Sheikh Jarrah. While there likely would have been an outcry regardless of when the court decision was to be handed down—assuming it supports eviction—that response would have been considerably muted and brief. Now, the protests challenging a potential eviction have wrapped around the rioting in the cities and the military confrontation in Gaza.
In fact, many observers are failing to comprehend the true serious character of the protests occurring between Jews and Arabs within Israel. Radical and extremist Israelis have opted to confront Arabs while radical Arab groups are attacking Jews in many cities in the country; especially those with sizeable, mixed Jewish-Arab populations. There was looting and violence against Jews, destruction of stores, and burning of a synagogue by Arabs in Lod on the one side. In the city of Bat-Yam, there were attacks against Muslim looking citizens, Muslim children, rioting, and even an attempted lynching of an Arab by Jews who appear to have been bused into these cities to generate a confrontation.
The bitter confrontation has been festering for a while, but there had been new voices among Israeli Arabs seeking to participate in running the country. For the first time there were very serious discussions on both sides about bringing Arab party(ies) into a coalition government. At the same time, the most extremist, radical, Kahanaist style Jewish political party—Religious Zionism—obtained five seats in the newly elected Knesset, thanks to a political grouping created by Netanyahu.
Change that will last must be permitted to evolve. If extremist groups on both sides persist in sabotaging these efforts, the cycle of violence will prevail. Without leaders on both sides courageous enough to do the unexpected, periodic periods of bloodshed tragically will continue.
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