The game of chess is often seen as a contest between two players who are engaged in a military conflict. Knights aboard horses form the calvary, bishops armed with swords, rooks imitating the castle, pawns as the foot soldiers, and the king and the queen. Capturing the king is defeating the enemy. In that context what transpired yesterday was President Putin’s opening and today President Biden answered. Neither was dramatic but they began the “game” after all the psychological gamesmanship had played out.
U.S. military understood well that in military confrontations, it is almost impossible to mobilize and prepare a large military force for battle—not for a defined exercise—if you are not prepared to move ahead with action. In this case, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine under these conditions was inevitable.
President Putin needed to launch this invasion even if turns out to be only a short-run fight. The soldiers and the public required that these maneuvers had a purpose. This explains why President Biden could make repeated, emphatic announcements that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent. He and the Pentagon understood that the Russian force of 130,000-190,00 could not be kept in battle ready mode without either engaging the enemy or stepping down. For the Russians and especially for President Putin, withdrawal was never in the cards. The unknown question in the West is how far the Russian military will be required to proceed to satisfy Putin and the Russian people that the invasion of Ukraine was a worthwhile, military success.
For President Biden, the question will be whether he and his Western allies are prepared to reply in a meaningful manner with significant and comprehensive sanctions against Russia for its pointless invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. recognizes the extent to which it can squeeze Russia economically. It will be reflected on the streets of Russia but even more clearly in the pocketbooks of the Russian oligarchs. It is the successful Russians who will feel their lost markets, their reduced energy sales, and the drying up of their trading partners. This is the cost and potential danger for Putin. The Russian Government can stretch the patience of the Russian people for a long time, but it is unclear for how long Putin’s financial supporters will accept a negative impact on their billions.
The countries which have the most to lose and play the most critical roles are America’s Western allies and, for Russia, the Chinese. In the West, the biggest factor will be Germany’s willingness not to certify the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline from Russia to German and to the European Union. The effect on the decreased availability of energy to Europe will be dramatic and very painful economically, but the financial costs to Russia will be even greater. Russia believed the pipeline would be a huge windfall for its economy. For Prime Minister Olaf Scholz this decision constitutes a major statement of support for the sanctions protocol on the part of the new German Government. (What was an interesting and not inconsequential sidenote to this decision was that while Germany appeared to be reluctant to consider any major military action, at the same time the new Government was clearly ready to avoid appearing to support even the appearance of “appeasing” the Russians.)
For the Russians, it is the need for economic markets and sales to replace the West. The invasion of Ukraine will undoubtedly force Putin to actively substitute for the markets provided by the West to support a struggling Russian economy. If the Chinese Government sees enough for itself on a geopolitical level as well as economically, then Russia may be able to replace, at least for the time being, trade with the West. It is also quite possible that Russia will obtain Chinese weapon systems and national product development as well as gain additional markets, as an outgrowth of the confrontation.
For Russia in the long run the economic/political relationship with China will be transitory, while its links to the West are historic. If indeed Putin is determined to recreate piece by piece the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, he may end up winning a few pawns, but he will not checkmate the West. The cost will be high for all parties if Russia proceeds, but President Putin does not have a winning end game.
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