The Democrats May Have Trouble Too

Most of the election post-mortems have rightfully focused on the fact that November 8th hardly produced anything close to the red tsunami that had been predicted. In fact, if one looks inside some of the state data, Republicans did themselves a true disservice to the extent to which they followed many of the Trump and MAGA recommendations.

It is not only that the R’s did not win the Senate, but they barely obtained a win in the House of Representatives. The GOP lost state races and state leadership positions in red states as well. Democrats flipped at least four state houses with several still unresolved and had a net gain of two state governors’ mansions. Had the post-2020 census redistricting not been so favorably skewed in the Republicans favor--much of which the Democrats have only themselves to blame—in all likelihood the Democrats might have achieved an even larger win. This was especially obvious in New York, New Jersey, and California.

Donald Trump and his legions together with the timid Kevin McCarthy can spin the

election results any way they please, but except for the Republican challenger for the governorship in Arizona, Kari Lake, all defeated Republicans have conceded and not alleged voter fraud. How aggressive the new Republican controlled House of Representatives will be, may hinge on whether the new speaker has a majority of 219-217 or 223-212 or something in between. The most likely result baring a recount will 222-213.

The voters turned out not to be as focused on the economy as they were with the future of American democracy. Americans rejected the perceived, persistent divisiveness that the Republicans espoused. On the other hand, Hispanic voters—especially those of non-Mexican and non-Puerto Rican ancestry—supported Republican candidates more strongly than ever. Democrats, once again, continued to take the growing Latino vote for granted in many parts of the country.

At the same time, younger voters turned out in this mid-year election more strongly than they had in over 30 years. Many of the under-29-year-old voters as well as many women of child-bearing age supported Democrats and pro-choice ballot initiatives in large numbers. For these voters, candidates who were clearly identified as pro-life were unacceptable even if the persistent inflation was upsetting their family’s economy.

Former President Trump’s re-election announcement was timed to exploit the current public focus on elections, and to distract his supporters from the Republicans loses, but his predicted announcement was really about wanting to keep himself in the spotlight. He did not want to waste a minute without putting himself back into the political conversation, regardless of what his proclamation might have on the still pending Senate run-off in Georgia. Trump believed he needed to stay out front, before he lost any more time to the huge Election Day victory obtained by his current leading rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

At the same time, however, the Democrats, themselves, need to be very careful how they interpret the election results. It is critical for the Democrats that they listen to the voters and not the voice of the progressive wing of the Party. While Democratic leaders should be prepared to follow and adopt some of the progressive agenda—for example several elements of the environmental proposals in the Green New Deal—they need to tread slowly to insure they can win back the House and maintain the Senate in 2024. If the Democratic Party moves too far off the center, any success they may have just achieved will vanish. They need to continue to demonstrate a willingness to compromise as President Biden has sought, otherwise their electoral success will vanish.

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Leadership Footnotes

Perhaps the first sign that the Democratic progressives have gotten the message will be evident if they abstain from contesting the incoming new House leadership which appears to have the support of a majority of House Democrats. In addition, Democrats need quickly to learn not to take an incumbent’s seat for granted as was done in New York’s Hudson Valley, where Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair, lost his race for re-election. Progressives who had challenged him in the primary, may well have caused his loss in the general election by not rallying behind him.

The House Republicans meanwhile appear to be prepared to engage in a leadership bloodbath. If the Trump loyalists and the Freedom Caucus are determined to contest the nomination of Kevin McCarthy for Speaker on the House Floor in January, it may cause additional fissures within the Republican electorate. While Trump undoubtedly will see this as an indication of his support in Congress, it is doubtful that the national electorate will see it that way.

Perhaps the saddest manifestation of how low norms have fallen in Washington occurred on Thursday when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was scheduled to make her official announcement concerning her future as the House Democratic Party leader. When the House assembled, the Republican leader Kevin McCarthy was noticeable by his absence and Republican Whip Steve Scalise walked out halfway through her statement. Rather than demonstrating a gesture of civility to a Member and Leader who had served in the House for decades, McCarthy felt that the MAGA flank of his caucus needed to see him flaunt Pelosi.