After keeping the country on the edge for five days, a large block of votes finally came in from Pennsylvania permitting the voting services to declare former Vice-President Joe Biden the winner in the presidential election, having exceeded the 270 electoral votes required. While President Trump has not yet—and might never—concede his defeat in the election, Biden will be inaugurated as the 46th President on January 20, 2021 and Senator Kamala Harris will be sworn in as the first female and African-American and Asian American vice president.
After four years of President Donald Trump, the American people rejected his bid for a second term. At this point, even with the precise totals still to be determined, there already is much that can be gleaned from the vote.
1. More Americans voted in this election than ever in American history. Some voters turned out because they rejected Trump’s failures to rally the nation in the midst of the COVID-19 contagion. Other people came out hoping that Biden will be better able to manage the pandemic.
2. While Biden will probably end up defeating Trump by at least 7 million votes and at least 6 percentage points, it is clear that over seventy million Americans wanted Trump re-elected regardless of how divisive his style of governance. Of the Republican vote, probably 80% of them who massed—unmasked—at his rallies would go to the barricades for him. The other 20% were Republicans who could not push a lever with a “D” on it.
3. Trump’s supporters agreed with his tactics, his style, and his willingness to attack the functioning of the American democratic system. Biden is projected to defeat Trump eventually by nine million more votes than Clinton received in 2016. At the same time the huge turnout gave President Trump seven million more votes than he got in 2016. The Democrats successfully brought their voters out, but the Republicans appear to not only have turned out their base in large numbers, but gained significant new voters who were excited by Trump’s leadership.
4. Trump voters made a statement, which if ignored by the Biden Administration, will erode any success they hope to achieve over the next four years. Trump voters stated in clear terms that they were afraid of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party; even if their feared perception was unfounded.
5. If Biden wants to reform and improve Obamacare—assuming a Republican controlled Senate will pass it—he cannot permit it to carry a “Medicare for all label.” Similarly, programs to improve the environment—air, water, energy, etc.,—cannot be touted as a “green New Deal.” Many of the substantive ideas of these initiatives will need to be repackaged if they stand any possibility to be passed by Congress. If the left-wing of the Democratic Party fights hard for its labels, they and their party will be sent off into the political wilderness. This will be the governing test for the Biden-Harris Administration, once they gain control of COVID-19.
6. This was not a landslide victory for Biden even if Speaker Pelosi used that label in her meeting with her caucus last week. The Dems may have won the White House, but control of the Senate is hanging on their winning two run-off elections in Georgia on January 5th. The Republicans gained seats in the House to narrow the Democratic majority. A more serious Democratic problem is down ballot where the Republicans will continue to control many more state legislatures and state houses than the Democrats. This is where the re-districting will occur in 2021 when the census data comes in, adding to the Democrats’ defensive position for the next decade.
7. The result of the election showed a growing presence of Black and Brown voters in the Republican Party. It was especially true among Latinos, even discounting Cuban Americans in Florida. The hoped-for flip of Texas, for example, did not happen, at least in part, because the expected Hispanic voters did not automatically vote for Biden.
Overall, this election underlined the continuing culture war which exists in the United States. Joe Biden may well be the best possible hope to begin to heal the growing enmity in regions, among races, ethnic groups, sexes, religions, and socio-economic groups. The President-elect is committed to addressing the societal polarization, but first he must get the coronavirus under control and the people back to work safely.
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