The future of the Republican Party is becoming subject to fewer and fewer elements of rationality at the same time that it is becoming a more and more dangerous political environment. The politics being championed by various Republican party leaders point towards a potentially violent and authoritarian direction.
This is what is emanating both from the words of former President Donald Trump as well as Governor Ron DeSantis. At the same time, one also is hearing acquiescence to this direction from House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and former Vice-President Mike Pence. All of this suggests that two years after Trump exited the White House, the GOP remains in a very bad place in addressing the future of America’s democracy. It perhaps may have a few less extreme voices emerging, but it would be deceiving itself if it suggested that America is truly ready for a return of Donald Trump or even his radical style of politics. As long as Donald Trump is a force in Republican politics, the Party is unlikely to gain its equilibrium.
Republicans continue to support strict restrictions on abortion including the outlawing of abortion pills. This despite the fact that one of the clear signals that emerged from the 2022 congressional election was wide-spread public disapproval of the Supreme Court decision in the Dobbs case which overturned Roe v. Wade.
The Republicans also are not receiving the support they expected for their position on eliminating restrictions on most guns. The Republicans do not admit that as the number of violent gun incidents continues to escalate and the availability of guns proliferates, public fears of the availability of guns continues to climb, especially in urban settings. This is being met by some with a demand for easier weapons’ availability for the public.
The presence of education “policing” which began in Florida appears to be increasing as well. These constraints are a measure of the extent to which Republican followers are moving to create a new generation of “group-thinkers.”
Republican voices on foreign policy are moving even faster in advocating neo-isolationist positions. While the immediate consideration focuses on additional aid to Ukraine, there continues to be a sense among Republicans that the obvious place to find budgetary cuts is by reducing America’s global footprint. In strictly bellicose terms there are some Republican leaders who are underscoring the Russian threat looming over Europe or the growing saber rattling and economic expansionist ambitions of the Chinese in Asia. Of all the Republican voices addressing international security issues, only former Ambassador Nikki Haley is attempting to confront global issues in a more sophisticated manner; but her impact on any debate at this point, seems to be minuscule.
It is the way that Republican leaders are responding to the probable Donald Trump indictment that reflects most accurately the state of affairs in the GOP. While prosecutors, following the will of grand juries, hand down indictments every day, never has a grand jury suggested that there is probable cause that a former President committed a crime. There has always been a fundamental principle that no person in America is above the law. The extent to which Donald Trump and his acolytes, however, are attacking the integrity of the American judicial system, even before an indictment has been issued, is appalling.
As Trump did with the media and the election process, so too are he and his followers renewing threats to attack the court system. While it would be sad to see a former president treated like a criminal and this is driving Trump’s minion to disrespect the integrity and legitimacy of the legal system. If Trump’s arrest were to precipitate violence protesting an indictment, it would be a very clear indication that there are those in the country who are prepared to relive January 6, 2023.
Curiously, while there are some extremist views continuing to emerge from the most progressive wing of the Democratic Party, they are far fewer and certainly much less acerbic than they were a few years ago. There is actually a sense that the Democrats are adhering to political indicators which they believe will serve them will.
First, they are following President Biden’s lead. Play nice ball and let the Republicans play tough. Democrats sense that among moderates and independents this approach will win them far more friends heading into 2024 than a more aggressive approach. Let the Republican House leaders and presidential aspirants persist in extremist views and far-reaching political theories, while the Dems permit the media and various leaders to rebut the political ugliness—when and if necessary.
Second, it is beginning to appear almost certain that President Joe Biden will seek a second term. Democrats understand the numerical challenge that they face to maintain control of the Senate in 2024 and to regain a majority in the House. If Republicans persist in flirting with nominating extreme or previously defeated candidates in many of the vulnerable contests, this will polarize the elections. In most of these competitive races, based on their experience in 2022, Democrats believe they can capitalize on a majority of the electorate holding true to their 2022 moderate behavior.
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