Washington is going through a classic legislative battle similar to those which have occurred over the years, yet the tone and the rhetoric appears to be so much angrier. There exist genuine policy differences and priorities between Democrats and Republicans—as there always are--as well as serious divergencies within the Democratic Party. The conversation today between the various Parties is exceedingly vitriolic and polarizing among Members of Congress the likes of which have not been seen since some of the most vigorous confrontations over civil rights bills in the 1950’s and ‘60’s. Specifically, one need to see whether what took place this week and last night is only Act I and whether, after the intermission which will doubtless begin this weekend, Act II will see the actors return to Washington in two weeks invigorated or intransient.
After Congress successfully provided funding for the federal government through early December with passage of a continuing resolution (CR), the public can be assured that Members will be in session late into December if for no other reason than they will need to complete the appropriations process. While the major remaining focus is on the two major funding bills—the bipartisan $1.2 trillion infrastructure plan and the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package—Congress’ most urgent focus must be on raising the national debt ceiling limit which will create a global credit crunch if not enacted by mid-October 17.
As was the case with the CR, raising the debt ceiling must be passed but Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell appears willing to play chicken with Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer by placing other embarrassing legislative demands on the Senate. McConnell will point out that the Republicans supported the infrastructure bill in the Senate and Speaker Nancy Pelosi cannot get that bill passed in House. The GOP—as do Members of both parties—hope to campaign on roads, bridges, tunnels, and wideband extension in 2022. It’s failure to pass the House, will deliver a natural campaign slogan upon which McConnell will be delighted to campaign.
The battle between the liberal—progressive—Democrats in the House and the moderates intensified over the question of whether the Dems would unite to pass the infrastructure bill first and then address the larger reconciliation package. As of late last night, the progressives remained intent on not supporting passage of the $1.2 billion bipartisan bill, until the House considered the $3.5 billion bill. This is the dilemma which faces the Democratic leadership and President Biden. At this juncture it seems unlikely that any bill will pass before the House recesses for two weeks. While the Senate will be in session for the first week, the critical votes at this point are in the House.
It seems probable that even after the President seeks to cajole Members when he meets with them today, it only will be when both Houses return that some alternative solution out of this logjam might begin to emerge. The moderates will use Senator Joe Manchin’s $1.5 trillion compromise proposal for the reconciliation. The progressives will demand immediate passage of their entire package as they and President—so they will argue—are committed to the big bill. Without considerable compromise from both sides this stalemate will extend into next year.
There is a legislative possibility that what might be possible would be to agree to move ahead on the infrastructure bill and to downsize for now the reconciliation bill to perhaps $2.0 billion. Some of the pieces, for example free community college tuition funding, all the requested Medicare upgrades, or even universal childcare funding would be repackaged for another time. Assuming both sides would agree, and calmer voices prevail, it might enable these bills to be enacted at some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas. If the Democrats fail to enact these vital bills in some form, and if they continue this stand-off into the congressional election year, the Biden agenda and the Democrats could be wiped out in November 2022.
If they fail, the Democratic Party will have lost its best opportunity to make major changes in the economic, social, and environmental life of the country. Both Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society program and F.D.R.’s New Deal did achieve everything. Much of Roosevelt’s legislative program was struck down by the Supreme Court and parts of Johnson’s agenda ultimately got sidelined by racial tensions and the Viet-Nam War.
Roosevelt and Johnson fought the hard legislative fights, but they also compromised with Republicans. President Biden succeeded in getting Republicans on board for the infrastructure bill. He and his congressional leaders now also need to get their party’s factions to take the longer view of history and not insist on winning the entire battle now.
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