Former President Donald Trump has appeared to be totally frustrated because he no longer is determining the media’s coverage agenda for this campaign. He is not the day’s story. Trump is now stale bread before Vice-President Kamala Harris’ freshly baked baguettes, and he hates it. Harris has attracted so much public attention, incredible financing, and larger than anticipated crowds at her rallies. The former president’s response to these events is to fabricate facts and to make up stories to amuse his audience. One must believe that, personally, he no doubt is stewing over this reality and fuming at his staff whom he blames for everything.
To be clear, Kamala Harris has indeed had the wind in her sails since the day President Biden declared that he was not running. She had the surprise, the excitement, and the relief factors all on her side. The Vice-President only had to travel around the country and push her key policy issues—abortion, economic opportunity, and the environment--while introducing herself to the voters.
Meanwhile, all Trump does is rant and rave against her ad hominem. At his rallies, in his speeches, and even at his press conferences, he cannot sustain the conversation or focus on the issues policy. Trump’s followers are content with this approach because most of them also have a blind, visceral, uncritical reaction to whatever he says.
It appears that Trump’s campaign staff is totally frustrated and unable to bring him to change his campaign style. Trump cannot even get a boost from JD Vance, his vice-presidential running mate. Trump may not accept this reality, but his campaign is clearly faltering.
A number of analysts are predicting that as has been his historical operating style and given his current predicament, the Republican nominee will blame his campaign team for his current failings and will clean house. He will follow the same pattern he employed both in August 2016 as well as August 2020. Trump has no problem finding someone else to blame for his own failings.
In 2016 the Republican candidate was such an exciting phenomenon that the media covered almost all his rallies, and many carried them live. Now he is old news and like all candidates all he is getting are sound bites. If and when he makes news in press conferences, it is not determined by him but by reporters and editors. As he has yet to find a way to expand his base, his support appears to be mired in a rut from which he has not yet emerged.
Trump is also watching the polls. He is about to hold his second press conference in a week as his rallies are not moving his support needle. He will seek to improve his image without changing his message. Trump must expand his base because his campaign is really stuck. Without Independents and disaffected Democrats, Trump cannot regain the political initiative.
Meanwhile, Harris is creating great energy as she revives a base of Democratic voters who had been tapped so successfully by candidate Barack Obama in 2008. While they had joined in the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016 as well as in Biden’s in 2020, it had appeared that many of them were ready to step back or even sit out the 2024 election.
The Democrats now are seeing the Harris-Walz campaign reconnect with suburbanites, especially with women. Men as well as women of color are also excited. Young people are becoming energized to work in the campaign. As this enthusiasm continues to grow, the campaign coffers are continuing to rise as well. Many pollsters are now suggesting that not only are the critical rust-belt states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin--looking much more favorable for the Democrats in November, but so are some of the swing states, like Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. Furthermore, the Harris campaign already appears to have had a positive impact down ballot with Democratic control of House of Representatives a real possibility. (Admittedly, maintaining control of the Senate will be a major push for the Democrats, although a 50-50 tie might emerge.)
There are two other critically important caveats to the current situation. For Harris she is likely to have a positive bump during and following the Democratic Convention next week, but her real fight will begin after Labor Day. Vice-President Harris will need to comport herself successfully during her forthcoming press conference(s) and when she confronts former President Trump on the debate stage. Similarly, JD Vance will be measured very carefully by many, when he goes up against Tim Walz in their debate.
As quickly as the atmospherics have shifted in the month since President Biden withdrew, so too the next eleven weeks will undoubtedly be challenging for both sides. In addition, any positive or negative news that the Biden Administration will generate certainly will influence Harris’ campaign, directly or indirectly.
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