Political scientists generally were accustomed to separating the presidential party from the congressional party. There was an understanding that the presidential party focused on gaining control of the White House while the congressional one sought to pass the party’s agenda. While they worked together, the parties’ leaders in Congress tended to be deferential to the White House when their party was in control. This paradigm has been in decline now for several decades and today one has a sense that the parties view governing as a total free-for-all, which in part explains why the Republican Party today is in such disarray.
In addition, political parties in the United States, unlike those in so many other democracies historically have been non-ideological. Both major parties had several basic premises but, generally, strong party leadership kept their Members in line on the more salient issues. Today, the R’s are moving into a self-destructive mode.
First, the Republicans saw many of their 2016 and 2020 voters throughout the country rise up and reject weak Trump-selected candidates. The final coup de grace for the Republicans occurred in the Georgia run-off where Senator Raphael Warnock defeated Herschel Walker enhancing the Democratic majority in the Senate. The internal analysis of Warnock’s vote--which had been seen already around the country in November-- clearly showed that many of those who had been enamored with Trump including women, upper-middle class White men, and suburbanites, now turned out in a run-off to vote for the Black minister over an inarticulate former football player.
It should be noted that Trump’s even more recent attack on democracy calling for the suspension of the Constitution may well be his most dangerous gambit; both nationally as well as politically. This is the most serious, fundamental assault he has ever launched against the essence for which the United States stands. The silence from Republican leaders, furthermore, will only re-enforce those who rejected Trump candidates in November and December.
Second, both the Republican presidential party and congressional party are increasingly fracturing. In the November mid-term election, Republicans barely eked out a four-seat majority in the new House of Representatives being seated in January. In addition, the Republicans have a serious ideological fight on their hands deciding who will be the Speaker. The current party leader and presumptive speaker, Kevin McCarthy, is facing major opposition from his right and to a lesser extent from the party’s more moderate wing.
McCarthy previously lost his battle to be Speaker to Paul Ryan in 2015, following Speaker John Boehner’s resignation and retirement from Congress. At that time McCarthy was opposed largely only by the Freedom Caucus. Now he is facing harder challenges as well from those who question his loyalty to the party versus his allegiance to former President Trump. The forces allied against him succeeded in blocking the traditional House Party succession elections which usually follow immediately the congressional election. Republicans will now have the entire Holiday recess to consider how to proceed in January. It is not a legislative difference but one of politics and ideology.
Third, the Republican’s presidential party is still being led by former President Trump; but the defeats that so many of his hand-picked and endorsed candidates suffered during the mid-terms raise serious flags for the GOP as it considers Trump’s true viability as the party leader entering the 2024 presidential contest. All of Trump’s potential rivals for the nomination—Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis; former Governor and Ambassador Nikki Haley; former Senator, CIA Director, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; and former Vice-President Mike Pence, among others—will all not permit the former President to have the nomination by default.
These would-be nominees also appear to be cognizant of the fact that Trump faces a multiplicity of lawsuits which are all likely to affect him and any Trump re-election campaign. Republicans want to recapture the White House in 2024 but many question whether Trump can carry the Party to victory.
At the same there is a growing fear among an increasing number of Republicans that should the party deny him the nomination, Trump will take his money and his supporters and launch a third party run for the presidency in 2024. The 2022 elections already demonstrated at least on one level the rejection of Trump among many party loyalists. A Trump third party challenge surely will lose, with devastating results for Republicans efforts’ to regain control in Washington. It likely would set back future Republican victories for several elections.
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Lest one assume that only the Republicans have party issues, the Democrats now must face the question of how to address Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to leave the party and become an Independent. This will have policy ramifications, but it will also impact the Senate Democrats’ races in 2024, where they already are carrying a very sizeable disadvantage. The D’s have to defend 20 seats which they currently hold against ten held by Republicans, with two--plus Sinema’s seat--now held by Independents.
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