President Biden’s trip to Belgium is more than the American head of state going to Europe for a pep rally. For the President this is his most visible opportunity to demonstrate to the world his foreign policy leadership credentials. Many Americans voted for Biden in 2020 both as Democratic nominee and subsequently as president based on his lauded foreign policy experience.
Over the past weeks President Biden has responded to the threat and then, to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Biden was in command of both the facts and the strategy. In his use of intelligence, his gradual troop escalation, and in his control of the messaging, Biden has demonstrated command of the unfolding situation. To date, the President has emerged with his national security pedigree unscathed. For Biden and for the U.S., the meeting in Brussels may well be the most significant test an American president has faced on a national security since President John Kennedy faced down Premier Nikita Khrushchev in the October 1962 Cuban Missile crisis.
This is trip occurs as the world is watching President Vladimir Putin signaling to President Volodymyr Zelensky that he has no intention of backing down from his invasion of Ukraine. Putin wanted the war and he expected it to be a cakewalk. Ukraine has demonstrated that it will protect its homeland regardless of the costs. Putin has been shocked at Ukrainian resistance both from the military as well the civilian fighters. The performance of the exalted Russian military machine has been significantly exaggerated. It may possess huge numbers of troops and an enormous amount of dangerous and toxic weapons in its arsenal, but the performance of the Russian military has been demonstrated to be shockingly weak.
There are now four scenarios which have already been considered by the NATO allies:
1. Putin military stays in place, and the Russians endeavor to pound Ukraine into smithereens.
2. Putin takes a diplomatic path and retreats with perhaps some territorial concessions.
3. Putin escalates the confrontation by introducing chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons into the conflict.
4. Putin invents a false pretext, or there is an accident, that expands the war. This leads to a Russian attack on Poland or one of the Balkan countries, thus testing NATO’s resolve to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, plunging Europe into World War III.
No doubt the NATO countries already have an agreed upon strategy as to how they will respond to a scorched earth policy or a diplomatic solution. In the first instance they will wait out Putin but increase supplies to Ukraine. As for the second option, NATO will join other mediators to facilitate an exit strategy for Putin.
The key debate in Brussels will be over the remaining two possibilities which no doubt already have been gamed in the Pentagon and the White House. Specifically, the issue will be how NATO would respond to a Russian introduction of chemical or biological weapons or even nukes into the war in Ukraine? How much would NATO tolerate of a possible Russian expansion and intensification of the war in Ukraine before NATO is prepared to act? Would chemical or biological weapons be treated differently than tactical nuclear ones? Would an attack on Lithuania, for example, be treated the same as a Russian attack into Poland? What would be the response if Putin decides to move into neutral Moldova? Are all the NATO members committed to act under the provisions of Article 5 to respond as a united manner? How prepared are the combined NATO forces to engage the Russians?
On the other side of the equation, NATO needs to consider how far is Putin prepared to go if he continues to achieve only limited progress in Ukraine? How will Putin respond if believes there is a continuing decline in the morale of the Russian military? Will Putin be driven by continued economic sanctions and dislocation among the Russian people which may be threatening to intensify leading to a growing unrest at home? Is there a limit as to how far the Russian military is prepared to go before they—or civilian challengers--might pushback or even attempt a coup?
President Biden needs to be prepared to make decisions now. He is seeking a united front against Putin for all these eventualities. This challenge could well be the most significant test of his presidency, for the United States, and for the world.
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