So much has changed between Israel and her neighbors in just over a year. On October 7th Hamas terrorists slaughtered Israelis in a way and to an extent that the Jewish people had not experienced since the Holocaust. Innocent people—men, women, and children of all ages were brutally attacked and taken hostage by a wave of marauding fighters seeking to begin the battle to wipe a sovereign state off the map. Israel was demoralized and traumatized.
One year later, it is clear that in almost every way, Hamas as well as Hezbollah have failed in their goal. Their patron regime in Tehran also has been given clear notice that if it persists in playing with fire, it is their world which will be destroyed.
Israel’s recovery has come at a huge price on multiple levels. They succeeded in killing the political leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, as well as the long-standing leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah. Both Hamas and Hezbollah have lost most of their senior military and political leadership as well as thousands of their fighters. In accomplishing this military success, in addition to military terrorist fighters, thousands of Palestinian and other Muslim men, women, and children became the casualties of this tragic resetting of power in Gaza and in Lebanon. Most of these innocent non-combatants in Gaza and Lebanon fell because the terrorist leadership made a perverse use of Arab and Muslim life. As has been widely noted, Hamas and Hezbollah used civilians and civilian institutions (schools, mosques, and hospitals) to act as human shields for their fighters.
Similarly, Israel’s reprisal attack last Saturday against Iranian military sites and installations, was the follow-up to Iran’s October 1st launching of 200 ballistic missiles against Israel. Given the explicit—albeit carefully nuanced--statements by the Iranian leadership this particular confrontation, it is widely suggested, may have brought the Iranian leadership to recognize the scope of Israel’s aerial and technological capabilities. The Israeli Air Force appears to have held total command of the skies over Iran during their mission.
The land fighting in both Lebanon and Gaza is continuing. People are still being killed and injured by persistent drone attacks by Hezbollah and Israeli replies. There, nevertheless, have been considerably clear recent indications on both fronts suggesting a cease-fire for hostages deal might be in the making. The problem that now appears to be facing the various hostile parties—as it has been for some time—is whether their respective leaders are prepared to make it happen. In fact, as discussions appear to be developing on all fronts, it may well be the event that will be decided in the United States on November 5th which will be decisive as to how the war is resolved.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu faces some major domestic problems—in addition to an inevitable commission of inquiry about the war--as the Israeli Parliament begins its fall session. Ending the Gaza War as well as stabilizing the situation in South Lebanon will depend largely on how effectively Israel and the U.S. agree on a strategy on how to proceed.
In making his security/geo-political decision, Netanyahu needs not only to deal with his military advisers but his extreme right-wing and his ultra-Orthodox coalition members as well. Most observers believe that Bibi would prefer a Trump election victory, but, if necessary, he probably would rather give credit for resolving the Gaza War to out-going President Joe Biden than to an incoming Kamala Harris. (This is somewhat reminiscent of Iran agreeing to release the U.S. hostages in the American Embassy in Teheran not to President Jimmy Carter but to the newly inaugurated President Ronald Reagan.)
Except for the Hezbollah followers, most Lebanese--Christian, Muslim, and Druze--want Hezbollah and Iran contained—immediately. They want their legitimate Government to be able to rule again and their economic life restored. The Lebanese are likely to accede to most of Israel’s demands to a neutralized, de-militarized zone in South Lebanon. It appears that while Hezbollah still has some fight left, the preponderance of its military arsenal has been destroyed and its leadership ranks severely compromised.
Hamas continues to struggle even in the absence of Sinwar, but the remaining Hamas fighters are under extreme pressure from within to move ahead with a model for post-war re-construction of Gaza. Iran too has been significantly moved to at least temporary quiescence by Israel’s demonstration of its strategic and tactical abilities.
Given this situation what is troubling is why after over a year of fighting, with thousands of dead and wounded casualties, with hostages remaining in captivity, and with populations remaining unable to return home, why can’t the parties reach a resolution without further delay. Certainly, the global and regional reset which this war has precipitated will take time to eventually sort out on all levels. For now, it appears everything will have to wait until America votes.
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