Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was sent on a mission to Israel by President Joe Biden to advise Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in person that the U.S. needs Israel to move the war with Hamas to a new phase. While the President could have accomplished this on a telephone call, Biden wanted to insure that there was no misunderstanding among Israeli leaders. He appears to have told the Israelis that the reprisals against Hamas for its slaughter of Israelis must stop—and soon. There must be at least a cessation of the bombing of Hamas in Gaza if not an actual ceasefire.
While Blinken certainly did not give Bibi a date, the Prime Minister clearly got the message. Israel, for the first time, already suggested that it will cease the bombardment of Gaza, if Hamas will release the hostages. While this is clearly only an opening gambit, it is preparing the Israeli public for both a pause or even a ceasefire in return for a hopeful hostage release or prisoner exchange.
Among other things this meeting permits Netanyahu to buy some time, makes the public take notice that his government is seriously trying to bring the hostages home, and to imply that obliteration of Hamas will not be accomplished in this war. At the same time Israel is trying to win back some of international support which has been moving away dramatically since the land invasion began last Friday.
For Secretary Blinken, meeting face-to-face allows him to reiterate the President’s continued support for Israel. Biden needed to demonstrate that he supported Israel’s right to respond aggressively to the Hamas attack, but he now needs the Israelis to step down the intense bombardment. (The U.S. also undoubtedly addressed the significant up-tick of West Bank Israeli settler violence against Palestinians which has increased as the Israeli military forces have been pre-occupied. Blinken—not publicly—spoke to the President’s continued support for a two-state solution and at least a freeze on future settlements.)
On another level, Blinken’s visit at this moment sent a direct signal to Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran, that it is pressuring Israel to step down its attacks in Gaza. In the same way that Biden had previously moved American military assets into the region as a signal, so too, now, Washington was indicating to Israel’s enemies in the North not to use this moment to expand the war.
Blinken’s next stop(s) in the region—Jordan, Egypt, and maybe Ramallah, Saudi Arabia and Qatar—may be the most important for the Biden Administration. The President wants to evaluate what type of administrative model as well as financial assistance the Arab world will extend and support for the future of Gaza.
Israel has no interest in occupying the Gaza Strip or administering it, but it will certainly need to be involved in creating a more secure future for the people of Gaza as well as securing the future safety for Israeli citizens in Southern Israel. Any future economic interactions after this war between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza as well now as those on the West Bank will progress very slowly. The need to rebuild trust will take a painfully long time.
There are also major political considerations which the White House and Jerusalem have factored into this phase of the Gaza War. President Biden does not want the result of his strong national security decisions to be diluted but internecine Democratic politics. He is determined to use his leadership in this crisis as evidence of his unique qualifications to lead the nation. The President wants to avoid any factions within his own party interfering with his road to a second term.
At the same time, Biden is determined to overcome the incredulous bickering with the new Republican leadership in the House of Representatives over funding his requested emergency supplemental appropriations aid package. The President wants his leadership of the country in a global crisis as a clear demonstration of his fitness for re-election.
For Netanyahu the handwriting is on the wall and the Americans reportedly have made it clear to him as well. The U.S. recognizes that this ultimately is in the hands of the Israelis, the Washington Administration believes that Bibi can any longer lead the country. The timing is not fixed and the precise nature of his departure from office is not clear. Netanyahu has given no public indication that he believes he bears responsibility for the failures on October 7; but it is virtually impossible to envision a scenario where Netanyahu will lead his country for one day more than is necessary once the fighting has ceased.
It will take several weeks of incremental negotiations but absent the opening of a second front, a stand down of forces hopefully will occur soon. Establishing the terms and mechanisms of prisoner exchanges will be very complicated, but Washington appears determined to create the modalities for it to happen. A rapid resupply of food, water, medicine, fuel, and electricity will be expedited and eventually a corridor can be reestablished in the North Gaza to re-supply Palestinians. None of this will happen quickly, but an end to this tragedy is beginning to appear possible.
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